Political  Calculations
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We estimate the following odds that real GDP will be recorded within the indicated ranges for 2012-Q4 (all expressed in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars):

  • A 68.2% chance that real GDP will be recorded somewhere between $13,529.6 and $13,813.8 billion.
  • A 95.0% chance that real GDP will be recorded somewhere between $13,387.4 and $13,955.9 billion.
  • A 99.7% chance that real GDP will be recorded somewhere between $13,245.3 and $14,098.0 billion.

In considering the overall strength of economic growth in the United States, our one and two quarter temperature gauges both indicate the economy is currently performing in the "cool" zone, indicating sluggish economic growth. Our less volatile two-quarter GDP growth rate temperature gauge indicates that the U.S. economy is actually trudging along at near-recessionary levels.

We anticipate that this condition will continue through the fourth quarter of 2012 and will worsen going into 2013.

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Political Calculations

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