Now that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Statistics has published its third and final, for now, estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2012, we can use our "modified limo" forecasting technique to project approximately where GDP will be recorded for the third quarter of 2012!
Our chart below shows how our inertia-based forecasting method has done since 2004.
At present, we anticipate a 50% chance that real, inflation-adjusted GDP will be recorded above $13,602 billion in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars for the third quarter of 2012, and conversely, a 50% chance that GDP will be recorded three months from now at a value below that figure.
To narrow in on where 2012-Q3's GDP will actually be recorded, we estimate the following odds:
Although we're coming off a quarter where the U.S. economy could reasonably be described as being in a "microrecession", as we had long expected, we anticipate that the GDP growth rate will be stronger in the third quarter of 2012 by comparison. Going by the dividend futures data we've had available since November 2011, the third quarter of 2012 has always looked as if it would be the strongest in 2012. Much like how the second quarter of 2008 was the strongest quarter in that year, even though the U.S. economy had already peaked and had begun falling into recession earlier in December 2007.
Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.
Be the first to read Political Calculation's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for August 28th, 2014 | John Ransom
In Other News: Warren Buffet's Secretary Unavailable for Comment on Burger King Tax Move | Michael Schaus
In Other News: Rare Sighting of the Elusive President Obama in His Natural Habitat, the Golf Course | Michael Schaus