Political  Calculations

Not long ago, we used stock market-style technical analysis to reveal that the policies implemented during President George W. Bush's tenure in office were most likely responsible for launching the economic recovery that followed the December 2007 recession and that the policies implemented during President Barack H. Obama's tenure in office were most likely responsible for derailing that recovery.

Since technical analysis is such a weak analytical technique, we thought we'd revisit that topic today using a combination of regression analysis and statistical analysis, focusing in on the one data metric that really defines a recession for most people: job layoffs.

Our chart below uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data for the seasonally-adjusted number of initial unemployment insurance benefit claims filed each week for the period spanning 6 July 2008 through 26 September 2010, which tracks the number of job layoffs that occurred during this period. We've annotated the chart to show the major events that coincided with major shifts in the trend in job layoffs or that affected the trend in data for short periods of time.

Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 6 July 2008 - 26 September 2010

Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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