Going by our preferred Modified Limo forecasting technique, we now see a 50% probability that real GDP in 2012-Q2 will be finalized at a value over $13,608.0 billion, and a 50% probability that it will be finalized under that level.
The BEA's first advance estimate for the quarter is $13,558.0 billion, so at present, it appears that we overshot the target by 0.37%, although we are still within our originally projected forecast range (where we had given a 68.2% probability of that 2012-Q2 real GDP would fall between $13,367.7 billion and $13,649.9 billion in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars.
Peeking ahead, using the BEA's first estimate of 2012-Q2's GDP (they will "finalize" the estimate for the quarter with their third estimate in September 2012), we would project real GDP in 2012-Q3 to be roughly $13,617.1 billion in the inflation-adjusted terms of chained 2005 U.S. dollars, with a 68.2% probability of falling between $13,475.3 billion and $13,758.9 billion.
All-in-all, that suggests a pretty lackluster GDP growth rate is in store for the third quarter of 2012.
On Friday, 27 July 2012, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its estimates of the U.S.' inflation-adjusted GDP going back to the first quarter of 2009. Our animated chart below shows what changed.
Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.
Be the first to read Political Calculation's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for October 24th, 2014 | John Ransom
In Other News: List of "Useless Government Spending" Strangely Doesn't Include Biden's Salary | Michael Schaus
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance; Williams Edge Webinar for October 22nd, 2014 | John Ransom
In Other News: Massachusetts School Board Moves to the Right of Democrats - Becomes Socialist | Michael Schaus