Political  Calculations

Back in August 2010, we became concerned that the professional U.S. news media really were being caught with their pants down far too often when reporting economic news, which they were perpetually describing as "unexpected".

So, we decided to help them out. We shared how we've become able to project the future for the number of seasonally-adjusted new jobless claims each week with such a high degree of accuracy. After all, using those methods, we've been able to transform this particular economic statistic into the most easy to forecast of all economic data.

So, imagine our surprise when we decided to pay attention to their reporting of the most recent new unemployment insurance claims from Thursday, 14 June 2012 when, well, let's let Bloomberg tell the story....

Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9 from a revised 380,000 the prior week that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected claims would fall to 375,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Really? Unexpected? Again?! Who exactly are these economists that keep getting surveyed who it seems really couldn't forecast their way out of a wet paper bag?

Let's try something - let's take our statistics-based analytical method and find out just how far back in time we could have put ourselves in the right ballpark for predicting last week's numbers!

For our methods, we need at least six weeks worth of data to establish whether a trend exists, and ideally ten weeks to get a decent statistical picture of it (obviously, the more data the better - these values represent the minimum values we need to put the picture together). Since we confirmed in an update on 3 May 2012 that a new trend in the number of seasonally-adjusted new jobless claims had indeed taken effect, pegging its beginning to the week ending 18 February 2012.


Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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