Political  Calculations

Back in the days of the Soviet Union, there was a whole field within political science known as "Kremlinology", where people outside the ruling circle within the Kremlin would attempt to divine what was really going on in that nation from what little information the country's bosses made public in the media they controlled.

It occurs to us that since we've stopped publicly forecasting where the S&P 500 will go next that many of our readers may be in the same boat. Especially since our last post on the topic, where we posted the following chart and offered this cryptic observation:

Accelerations of the S&P 500 Average Monthly Index Value and Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 2003 to Present, with Futures as of 30 April 2012

An objective reading of the chart indicates two changes affecting stock prices in the relative absence of noise: one in the very near short term as investors adapt to their just changed expectations for dividend payments that has shifted the future from where it was, and the other playing out in the longer term given their overall expectations for the future.

Wow! What the hell did *that* mean?

If you're one of our savvier readers, you would have taken the context of that post into account, where we had begun by noting ExxonMobil's recent increase of their cash dividend payments to become the largest dividend payer in the S&P 500.


Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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