Political  Calculations

Currently, international trade data suggests that both China and the U.S. are undergoing significant, near-recessionary slowdowns in economic growth, if not outright recessions, which we strongly suspect is already the case for China, but not the U.S., which we believe will only skirt the edge this quarter.

U.S.-China Trade, Annualized Growth Rates, January 1985 through February 2012

But that's not the main focus of our post today, where we'll instead deploy our doubling rate chart of the value of exports the U.S. has sent to China in each month from January 1985 through February 2012:

Doubling Rate Chart: U.S. Exports to China, January 1985 through February 2012

And our doubling rate chart of the value of everything that the U.S. has imported from China over the same period of time:

What these two charts illustrate is the period of time in which the volume of either U.S. exports to China, or U.S. imports from China, have taken to sustainably double since January 1985. And by "sustainably double", we mean to exceed a previous level at which the volume has trade has doubled, without having fallen back below that level since.

Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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