With the BEA's release of the third and final (for now) GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2011, we can now project ahead and finalize our forecast of the size of the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2012. Our accompanying chart shows what pure momentum mixed with some statistical analysis would project:
To be more accurate in describing our forecast though, what we're really forecasting here is the level of real GDP in the U.S. for which there is a 50% chance of the actual recorded value of GDP being higher and a 50% chance of the actual recorded value of GDP being lower. We would be greatly surprised if we were dead on the mark!
Using statistics, we can give the following probabilities for where 2012-Q1's level of inflation-adjusted GDP will be recorded. All values below are given in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars:
Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.
Be the first to read Political Calculation's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for October 24th, 2014 | John Ransom
In Other News: List of "Useless Government Spending" Strangely Doesn't Include Biden's Salary | Michael Schaus
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance; Williams Edge Webinar for October 22nd, 2014 | John Ransom
In Other News: Massachusetts School Board Moves to the Right of Democrats - Becomes Socialist | Michael Schaus