Political  Calculations

Yesterday, in projecting where U.S. GDP will most likely be in the months ahead, we closed our post with the following comment:

Overall, the U.S. economy is continuing to perform as expected. We anticipate that growth will continue at a similar pace to 2011-Q3 through the end of the year, however we expect that the U.S. economy will begin to slow significantly in the second quarter of 2012, based upon dividend futures data for the S&P 500.

The only problem with that comment is the link, where we pointed back to a post from June 2011, which was based on analysis when we only had the dividend futures for the S&P 500 through the end of the second quarter of 2012 available to us.

Since we now have dividend futures data available to us through the fourth quarter of 2012, the chart below updates the future we see:

S&P 500 Quarterly Dividends per Share, 2009-Q1 Through 2011-Q3, with Futures Through 2012-Q4, as of 2 November 2011

Typically, when the economy and stock market are growing, quarterly dividends per share will rise from quarter to quarter, peaking each year in the fourth quarter (as a number of companies that pay their dividends annually issue their dividends at this time.)

Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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