The strongest force affecting future GDP is inertia.
At least, it is if you go by our "modified limo" approach to forecasting future GDP.
Here, we took a forecasting approach originally developed by Steve Conover, which he called the "climbing limo" method, and adapted it to produce a more accurate projection of GDP in the near term (the next quarter) than what the climbing limo method delivers (although to be fair, the climbing limo method was developed to look three quarters into the future - there's a lot that can happen in the meantime to sway the economy off the course that method would forecast!)
The graph below visualizes the forecast presented by our tool which you can see by clicking here:
In reality, the target value of $13,299.8 billion in constant 2005 U.S. dollars that we've projected for the inflation-adjusted value of GDP in the third quarter of 2011 represents the midpoint of the forecast range into which we expect GDP to be in 2011-Q3.
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