Mike Shedlock

Inquiring minds note a huge discrepancy between Gallup measured unemployment and BLS reported unemployment. Please consider the Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment report.

Gallup Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted

Gallup says "Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point."

However, the BLS maintains both seasonally-adjusted data and non-adjusted data. Gallup data is comparable (or at least should be) to BLS unadjusted data.

BLS Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate Comparison

  • BLS: 7.0%
  • Gallup: 8.9%

The non-seasonally adjusted Civilian Labor Force is 154.381 million. Thus, the 1.9 percentage point difference in the unemployment rate equates to about 2.93 million employees.

Something is wrong with at least one of the above data series.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.

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