Numerous cities have filed for bankruptcy in recent years, and many more cities are on the brink. The reason is untenable union wages, and more importantly untenable pension promises.
Sampling of Bankruptcy News
What Went Wrong?
Those are not isolated incidents. I have written about Oakland, Houston, Baltimore, Harrisburg, and numerous other cities. Unions are behind the demise of every one of those cities.
Union coercion (public and private), vote buying, and inept city management in settling wage and pension disputes ruined every one of the above cities. Dozens more cities are on deck.
Detroit was obviously bankrupt ten years ago, and would be far better off had it declared bankruptcy ten years ago, but just did so in July of 2013.
Unions keep promoting their head in the sand belief that pensions and wage contracts are sacrosanct. Well they aren't. Take a look at actual events.
In an exchange with an attorney representing Detroit's two pension funds, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes said U.S. Bankruptcy Code would not afford special protection to pensions because, "It gives a priority to one unsecured creditor or one group of unsecured creditors, over all the others."
Read that ruling over and over again until it sinks in. There is only one inescapable conclusion: Public Union Pensions are NOT Sacrosanct, regardless of what state constitutions stipulate.
Taxpayers can all be thankful that US bankruptcy laws overrule ridiculous state guarantees.
Vallejo Case Study
Vallejo, California is an interesting case study. The bankruptcy judge let the city cut pensions. It didn't. And now (just as I predicted in 2010), Vallejo is headed for bankruptcy again.
The lesson for cities is simple, slash pensions when you have the chance (or you will be back in bankruptcy court again).
What Constitutes Fair?
A friend of mine pinged me with these thoughts regarding the Chicago pension mess.
The City of Chicago did a dumb thing 20 years ago, but is it really fair to take away a pension from someone who worked 20 years for less money than he could have made in the private sector to get the pension? This is a tricky issue. In the private sector employers default all the time, but the PBGC guarantees a high percentage of benefits. PBGC does not guarantee municipalities.
Second, to the extent that the retirements result in a reduction of force, it could save the City money. Retirement benefits are generally not at full pay and certainly are not subject to upward adjustment for promotions. Early retirement is how the private sector gets rid of deadwood.
My response follows...
Template for Fairness
It certainly is not fair to ask taxpayers to pick up the tab, given the threats, coercion, vote buying, and backroom deals under which politicians rewarded their friends and themselves jobs with ridiculous pensions.
Fairness Test Needed
In bankruptcy court, some judge (as happened in Rhode Island and will happen in Detroit), is going to slash benefits by 50%, perhaps even more.
There will be no fairness test. Pension reductions will happen, and they will be across the board. Yet, some high-roller pensioners will collect over $150k per year in benefits (even with the reduction), while others with a $25,000 pension will see it cut to $12,000.
That’s fair to the taxpayer, but arguably not fair to those on the bottom rung. And that is the likely result in absence of a negotiated settlement.
The fairest possible thing to do is sit down at the table and negotiate a settlement.
I suggest, those with the least pension benefits get the smallest cuts, and those with the most benefits get the biggest cuts.
Indeed, if unions were smart, the majority could come to negotiated terms with a starting point along the lines of
Such a negotiated settlement would be the fairest thing for everyone, pensioners and taxpayers alike.
However, my starting point may not be possible. When pension plans are exceptionally low-funded, even those on the bottom rung may need to take some hit.
The next fairest thing is bankruptcy. And although bankruptcy is fair to the taxpayer (assuming no tax hikes), bankruptcy is not likely to be very fair to those on the bottom rung.
Pension Obligation Realities
As part of the negotiation process, the city and the unions must agree on how underfunded the plan really is. One of the factors that determines funding levels is assumed rates-of-return.
The 8% rate-of-return assumption that many plans now have is ridiculously optimistic. Thus extreme caution is warranted so cities do not end up back in bankruptcy. This necessitates several additional restrictions on the bankruptcy negotiation process.
Five Immediate Action Items
Will Unions See the Light?
If unions don’t negotiate pensions, bankruptcy will result, and unions will then have only themselves to blame.
Hopefully, a few across-the-board pension cuts exceeding 50% or more, especially in Detroit, will get unions to see the light.
My plan offers a fair template for city officials, taxpayers, and unions. If unions disagree, they can take their losing case to bankruptcy court with likely results as depicted above: multiple bankruptcy filings and across the board cuts applied indiscriminately.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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