Mike Shedlock

A friend sent me an article in Reuters today that claims Little evidence yet that Obamacare costing full-time jobs.

One in five businesses in the service sector think President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform has hurt employment at their firms over the last three months, a National Association of Business Economics survey showed on Monday.

But there is little discernible impact in the employment figures released in recent months, including the September numbers out on Tuesday. The number of people with part-time jobs who want full-time work, for example, was essentially flat in September at 7.9 million.

The number of part-time workers spiked in 2008, well before Obamacare was enacted, and has been slowly falling as a share of total employment since 2010. In September people working part time because they could not find full-time work made up 5.5 percent of the employed, unchanged from August. The spike in 2008 and the steady drift downward since then suggests the elevated level of part-time workers is more likely due to the economy's weakness.

Did Obamacare Cause an Increase in Part-Time Jobs?

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture Blog says "no" in his October 7 post Did Obamacare Cause an Increase in Part-Time Employment?

A reader emailed the following question about this weekend’s WaPo column (ObamaCare: Investing Advice for Senator Ted Cruz):

"How can you make investment decisions about future returns in light of Obamacare driving so many workers to part time status?"

Ahhh, a classic bit of misdirection — an assumption built into a question. The first step in answering that is to verify the reality of that assumption: Has Obamacare actually caused an increase in part-time employment?

As you can see in the black line below, the number of part time workers spiked because of the Great Recession. It peaked and began to slowly reverse before the ACA [Affordable Care Act - Obamacare] was even passed.



No, there does not appear to be an increase caused by Obamacare.

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.