The official results are still not in, but expectations are now in the range of 8%. On the over-under line, I will guess higher.
Spain's deficit targets were 4.5% for 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. Odds of success are zero.
Not to worry, Brussels extended the deadline and reduced the targets once again. We are now looking at 2015 or 2016 for compliance.
At last count, Brussels now expects for 6.1% in 2013. I expect that target will be revised up. It won't matter. Spain will still need more time.
Two Things Spain Needs (and Won't Get)
Spain cannot recover until it sheds the shackles of the euro and defaults, or Germany and Northern Europe forgive hundreds of billions of Spain's euro denominated debt.
Bear in mind neither of those is sufficient. In addition, Spain needs many structural reforms related to work rules, unions, and pensions in addition to one of the above choices.
Since none of this is likely in the short-term, Spain will continue to sink. And France with Hollande at the helm is like "going to hell in a handbasket". Simply put, the French economy won't thrive, to say the least. And Germany can hardly rebalance on its own.
So ignore all this happy talk about the worst being behind. It's all an illusion based on stabilization of bond rates in Europe, and that won't last either.
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