I challenge the notion the economy added 157,000 jobs last month. I also challenge 23,000 leisure and hospitality jobs, and I challenge the claim that retail payrolls grew by 32,600.
For three straight months the household survey is way out of line with the payroll survey. This past month the household survey showed a net gain of only 17,000 jobs (please see Last Hurrah for Jobs? for details)
Yes, many prior months were revised up. But where are we now, going forward?
If the economy really did add 157,000 jobs on the "strength" of part-time hiring, then this was the last hurrah. If not, then I expect those BLS revisions to be re-revised away and October or November was the last hurrah.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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