Mike Shedlock

Last month I posted a chart showing employment by age group. Here is an update as of Friday's job release.

Employment Demographics by Age Group



click on chart for sharper image

Note that 100% of the job growth since the recession is in age group 55 and over.

Last month, someone proposed the above chart was blatantly misleading because it does not reflect the aging workforce.

Let's investigate that hypothesis with a look at actual data (numbers in tables and charts in thousands).

Civilian Institutional Population (CP) and Labor Force (LF)

Year 16-19 CP 20-24 CP 25-54 CP 55+ CP 16-19 LF 20-24 LF 25-54 LF 55+ LF
2000 15912 18311 120656 57697 8271 14250 101393 18668
2001 15929 18877 121604 58683 7902 14557 101789 19485
2002 15994 19348 122077 60151 7585 14781 101719 20778
2003 16096 19801 123289 61981 7170 14928 102309 22104
2004 16222 20197 123410 63527 7114 15154 102122 23011
2005 16398 20276 124175 65233 7164 15127 102773 24257
2006 16678 20265 124884 66988 7281 15113 103566 25468
2007 16982 20427 125696 68761 7012 15205 104353 26554
2008 17075 20409 125652 70652 6858 15174 104396 27858
2009 17043 20524 125565 72668 6390 14971 103742 29040
2010 16901 21047 125290 74591 5906 15028 102940 30014
2011 16774 21423 124704 76716 5727 15270 101744 30876
2012 16984 21799 124314 80187 5823 15462 101253 32437

Age Group 25-54 Key Facts

  • In 2007 the civilian population was 125,652,000 
  • In 2007 the labor force was 104,353,000
  • In 2012 the civilian population was 124,314,000
  • In 2012 the labor force was 101,253,000

Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.

Simply put, the decrease in civilian population in age group 25-54 was 1,340,000. The decrease in the labor force was a staggering 3,100,000!

Let's explore this idea in still more detail looking at employment, unemployment, and non-employment.

Spotlight on Age Group 25-54

Year 25-54 CP 25-54 LF 25-54 Employed 25-54 Not Employed 25-54 Unemployed
2000 120656 101393 98292 22364 3102
2001 121604 101789 97948 23656 3842
2002 122077 101719 96823 25254 4896
2003 123289 102309 97178 26111 5131
2004 123410 102122 97472 25938 4650
2005 124175 102773 98517 25658 4256
2006 124884 103566 99672 25212 3894
2007 125696 104353 100450 25246 3904
2008 125652 104396 99369 26283 5027
2009 125565 103742 95144 30421 8597
2010 125290 102940 94082 31208 8858
2011 124704 101744 93674 31030 8069
2012 124314 101253 94150 30164 7103

Notes

  1. Unemployment is the difference between employment and the labor force. 
  2. Not-employed is the difference between employment and the civilian population. 
  3. Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables. 
  4. There may be rounding errors.

More Key Facts For Age Group 25-54

  • Between 2007 and 2012 the civilian population declined by 1,340,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 the labor force declined by 3,100,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment fell from 100,450,000 to 94,150,000.
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment declined by 6,300,000 jobs on a mere decrease in the civilian population of 1,340,000!

Let's take a look at the above table in chart form.

Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed, Not-Employed 



click on chart for sharper image

Irrefutable Evidence Falling Employment Not Based on Boomer Demographics

This plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 is irrefutable proof that the drop in employment and the falling participation rate is not based on aging boomer demographics.

By calculation, 4,960,000 jobs (6,300,000 - 1,340,000) simply vanished into thin air (in age group 25-54 alone).

Thus, the plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 also provides strong evidence the stated unemployment rate of 7.8% is bogus by a more sensible measure of unemployment.

Better Measure of Unemployment

I propose this simple definition: If you want a job, are physically able to work a job, and you don't have a job, then you are unemployed.

Actual measures are purposely defined to hide the true state of the economy.

For a close scrutiny of the latest jobs report, please see Establishment Survey +155,000 Jobs; Household Survey +28,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Revised Up, Flat Since September

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/startling-look-at-employment.html#i6ku5l4mXx3lpFeY.99

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.
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