Japan Current Account Turns NegativeBug in Search of Windshield
The trick for Japan is how to finance its national debt, now at a majorly unsustainable 235% of GDP.
Japan was able to do so for years on account of its current account surplus, of which trade is typically the largest component.
You can now kiss that surplus goodbye because Japan Current Account Turns Negative
As my friend John Mauldin suggests, Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. I highly doubt Japan can make it to 2022 or even 2017 before it runs into serious issues.
Actually, Japan has extremely serious issues already, it's just that the market is ignoring them for now. If interest rates rise by a mere 2% or so, interest on the national debt will consume 100% of Japanese tax revenue.
Global imbalances are mounting. I suspect within the next couple of years (if not 2013) Japan will resort to the printing press to finance interest on its national debt and the Japanese central bank will start a major currency war with all its trading partners to force down the value of the yen.
Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com