In response to 2.2 Million Go On Disability Since Mid-2010; Fraud Explains Falling Unemployment Rate I received a nice email from Madeline Schnapp, Director, Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs Investment Research.
Madeline Writes ...
I loved your disability graph so decided to expand on that theme some more and took a look at the relationship between the trend in disability recipients and the roll off of recipients of emergency and extended unemployment insurance programs.
Should we dare say there is a stunning relationship!
Amazing Achievement is Fraud
First consider a few snips from my previous post, then we will take a look at what TrimTabs has to say.
In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,638,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 945,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,693,000. Trim Tabs Weekly Macro Analysis
In the last month, actual employment fell by 169,000, but the unemployment rate dropped by .1%.
That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least.
Since Mid-2010 2.2 Million Went on Disability
Notice the jump in claims after the recession was allegedly long-over.
The timing coincides with unemployment benefits expiring at 99 weeks. Supposedly higher taxes will fix the problem. I say "nonsense".
Please consider snips from the TrimTabs Weekly Forecast
for May 8, 2012.