On Monday February 27, I laid out the Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention. Since then, Michigan, Wyoming, and Washington have posted results. The table below reflects those results.
I made additional changes to my super Tuesday estimates based on new information regarding delegate rules. For example, many states have minimum percentages to receive any delegates and this favors Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum except in Georgia where rules heavily favor Gingrich.
Finally, the LA times and Krem have posted different explanations for how the Idaho caucus works. There are now three possible scenarios for Idaho in play (depending on which explanation is correct).
Totals through March 3 in the table below are from Real Clear Politics 2012 Republican Delegates.
March 6 Super Tuesday numbers are my estimates.
|Total to Date||-||374||166||72||33||29|
|New Hampshire||Jan 10||12*||7||0||0||3|
|South Carolina||Jan 21||25||2||0||23||0|
|Minnesota **||Feb 7||40||2||17||1||4|
|Colorado **||Feb 7||36||9||17||2||1|
|Maine **||Feb 11||24||9||3||0||7|
|Wyoming **||Feb 29||29||10||8||1||6|
|Washington **||Mar 3||43||12||3||0||3|
|Idaho **||Mar 6||32||18||0||0||14|
|North Dakota||Mar 6||28||8||7||6||7|
|Super Tuesday Est||Mar 6||811||396||190||131||53|
* States penalized half of their delegates.
** Not all delegates assigned, or assigned to candidates who have dropped out
*** Idaho Rules are in Question. See explanation below.
Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Splits)
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 374
Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Paul)
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 392
Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Romney)
Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 360
As you can see there is a decent-sized swing in play for Idaho, depending on the exact caucus rules. Even assuming Romney wins 100% of the Idaho delegates, he would still have barely over 50% of the delegates to date. However, that would probably, but not necessarily be enough as he would pick up some of those 41 and he rates to do reasonably well in California.
Nonetheless, even if Romney does as outlined above, the possibility for a brokered convention still exists. If Romney does worse than expected on Super Tuesday, it's a whole new ball game. It would also be a whole new ballgame if Romney were to do poorly in California, or split the delegates three ways here on out.
Super Tuesday Delegate Rules, Preview, Estimates
The rules for each primary are from the LA Times article Super Tuesday 2012: What's at stake and who's in the lead
Except where noted, polls are from Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll.
Delegates at stake: 76
How it works: 34 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state's 14 congressional districts will earn another two delegates, and the second-place finisher will win one, unless one candidate wins more than 50% in a district.
Gingrich wins all 14 districts for 28
Romney comes in second in all 14 districts for 14
Gingrich gets 52% of 34 for 18
Romney gets 28% of 34 for 10
Santorum gets 20% of 34 for 6
Delegates at stake: 66
How it works: 15 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If a candidate has more than 50%, though, he wins all 15. Another three delegates will be awarded to the winner in each of the state's 16 congressional districts.
In both cases, voters are electing delegates who have pledged to vote for a presidential nominee. Santorum, it should be noted, did not file delegate lists in all of the congressional districts.
The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
Santorum is not on the ballot in 3 of 13 districts.
See Family of three GOP delegates gets Santorum on ballot in an Ohio district for an explanation.
Of the 15 at-large
Of 16 Districts
Romney wins 3 by default and 6 contested for 27 delegates
Santorum wins 7 contested for 21 delegates
State Party Leaders give Romney 2, Santorum 1
Delegates at stake: 58
How it works: 28 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If one candidate has more than 66% of the vote, he wins all 28. In the nine congressional districts, a candidate will win all three delegates if he wins 66% of the vote. If the winner and runner-up both have between 20% and 66% of the vote, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
A more recent MTSU Poll show those percentages are holding.
Of the 28 at-large Santorum wins 18
Of the 28 at-large Romney wins 10
In the 9 Congressional Districts Santorum wins all 9 for 18
Romney come in second in all 9 for 9
State party leaders give 2 to Santorum, 1 to Romney
Delegates at stake: 49
How it works: 13 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving 15% of the vote. But because there are only two candidates on the ballot -- Romney and Paul -- it will likely be winner-take-all. Three delegates will also be awarded to the winner in each of the 11 congressional districts.
Romney wins all 49
Delegates at stake: 43
How it works: 25 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate has more than 50%, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state's five congressional districts, three delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15% of the vote, unless, again, one had more than 50% of the vote in that district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
Santorum wins 48% of 25 for 12
Romney wins 28% of 25 for 7
Gingrich wins 24% of 25 for 6
15 district Delegates
Santorum wins 7
Romney wins 4
Gingrich wins 4
Santorum wins 2 party leader votes, Romney 1
Delegates at stake: 41
How it works: 11 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote. Another three delegates will be awarded based on the vote in each of the state's nine congressional districts, again proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the vote. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
Based on the rules it appears Santorum will be lucky to win even a handful.
Delegates at stake: 32
How it works: According to the Idaho Republican Party, a secret vote will be held at each county caucus, lasting several rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated until one reaches 50%. County results will then be tabulated statewide, with 29 delegates awarded proportionally based on the final tallies. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
Note: That description from the LA Times differs considerably from this
Idaho Caucus Explanation:
Voters will go to locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.Predictions
In each round the candidate with the fewest votes or anyone with less than 15% is out of the race. The voting ends at the county level when there is a final vote for two candidates or one has more than 50% of the vote for that county.
The delegates assigned for that county will then represent the winning candidate. Counties will report their winner to the state office in Boise. If one candidate has more than 50% of the vote for all of Idaho, they get all 32 delegates. Otherwise, the candidates split delegates they won in each county
Assuming the LA Times is correct, the delegate totals will be split between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Otherwise Paul or Romney will win them all.
Scenario 1: Mitt Romney: 18 Ron Paul: 14
Scenario 2: Mitt Romney 32
Scenario 3: Ron Paul 32
NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUSES
Delegates at stake: 28
How it works: The caucuses will begin the process of allocating delegates to the national convention, but all 28 will remain unbound, meaning they can ultimately vote for whichever candidate they choose.
This is somewhat of a crapshoot but no one is likely to dominate and Paul's organization in caucus states should help.
ALASKA DISTRICT CONVENTIONS
Delegates at stake: 27
How it works: 24 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to candidates, based on the statewide vote, at individual district conventions. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
This is another crapshoot but one that favors Santorum and Romney
Delegates at stake: 17
How they're awarded: 11 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate received a majority. Another three delegates will be allocated to the overall statewide winner. The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
Rules are such that Romney will walk away with the lion's share
Mike "Mish" Shedlock