Courtesy of a Barclays Capital email here are the latest unemployment numbers in Europe.
Euro Area: +0.2 to 10.4% based on slight upward revisions in November, September, August. This was the 8th consecutive rise.
- Austria 4.1% unchanged
- Belgium: 7.2% unchanged
- Finland 7.6% unchanged
- France 9.9% +0.1
- Germany: 5.5% -.1
- Italy 8.9% +0.1
- Ireland 14.5% +0.1
- Netherlands 4.9% unchanged
- Portugal 13.6% +0.4
- Slovakia: 13.4% -.1 to
- Spain 22.9% unchanged
From a quarterly perspective, the unemployment rate in Germany fell 0.2pp to 5.6% in Q4 (from Q3 - and -1.1pp from a year ago). Following the same trend, in Ireland, it has edged down from 14.5% to 14.4%.
France's rose by another 0.1pp in Q4 11 to 9.8% after Q3 11 and is just 0.1pp above the 9.7% Q4 10 level; Italy's rose 3 tenths in Q4 11 to 8.7%, now 0.5pp above Q4 10.
In the last quarter of the year, the situation in Portugal worsened particularly quickly as the unemployment rate rose 0.6pp to 13.3%, 1pp above Q4 10. In Spain, the situation deteriorated even quicker as the unemployment rate rose 7 tenths to 22.8% in Q4 11, 2.4pp above Q4 10 print.
Barclays comments "We find that the overall picture is fairly negative and that it will not get any better in the short run. We expect the unemployment rate in the euro area to continue increasing - possibly at a faster pace - and we think it is more likely to stabilise in 2013 than in 2012.
"Germany Unlikely to Keep the Boat Afloat
Barclays says Germany Unlikely to Keep the Boat Afloat
Germany is the only country among the main countries whose sentiment on future employment is levelling off at such high levels. This bodes well for the future performance of its economy, on top of its strong fiscal position.
Bringing France, Italy and Spain into the picture, we believe that the gap between Germany and the rest of the euro area should increase. France's labour market is faltering badly, while those of Ital