The headline real GDP number of 2.8% does not sound too bad until you dig beneath the surface. A full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% was inventory replenishment. Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is on a recession track as well.

Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low

Bloomberg reports Treasury Five-Year Yield Declines to Record Low as GDP Misses Forecast

Treasury five-year note yields fell to a third consecutive record low after slower-than-forecast U.S. growth added to speculation the Federal Reserve will expand asset purchases to spur economic growth.

Ten-year note yields fluctuated as stockpile rebuilding accounted for 1.9 percentage points of the 2.8 percent economic expansion, sparking concern growth may be weaker than expected in the first three-months of this year. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Jan. 25 he’s considering additional bond purchases to boost growth after the Federal Open Market Committee announced that the target lending rate would stay low through late 2014.
Yield Curve over Time



click on chart for sharper image

Stock Symbols in Above Chart

  • $IRX Brown: 3-Month Yield
  • $FVX Blue: 5-Year Yield
  • $TNX Orange 10-Year Yield
  • $TYX Green: 30-Year Yield

Sustained economic weakness is the only reasonable explanation for this decline in yields. Yes, there is Fed intervention. However, the reason the Fed is intervening is "sustained economic weakness".

However, the Fed's actions are counterproductive. Driving down interest rates does not encourage bank lending, rather it does five things the Fed does not want.

Five Unwanted Results of Fed Policy

  1. Low interest rates clobbers those on fixed income - See Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"
  2.  
  3. Low interest rates and quantitative easing encourages bond market speculation and sure profits instead of bank lending - See
    1
    Mike Shedlock

    Mike Shedlock

    Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.

    Most Recent Articles

    Join the Debate
    0 Comments So Far