Helicopter Ben Bernanke passed his reconfirmation vote in the Senate Banking Committee this week. But he passed by 16 to 7. Most of the Republicans voted against Bernanke, as did one Democrat, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon. The reconfirmation now goes to the floor of the Senate, where it’s going to be held up for a while. (Sen. Jim DeMint and others are insisting that a vote on the Government Accounting Office’s audit of the Fed occur first.) But when the final vote happens, I think Bernanke could be in trouble.
Mirroring the Banking Committee vote, most of the 40 Senate Republicans may vote against Bernanke, and they will be joined by a number of Democrats. If Bernanke were to be opposed by as many as 35 or 40 votes, it would substantially undermine his credibility.
Whether it’s his past inflationary-bubble monetary performance, or the bank bailouts, or the AIG bailout, or the end to secrecy at the Fed, senators on both sides of the aisle are blaming Bernanke, fingering him as the wrong guy at the wrong time. And somewhere in that mix of opposition -- led by senators Richard Shelby, Jim DeMint, Jim Bunning, and others -- Republicans are gradually moving back to a Ronald Reagan–type, King Dollar, hard-money position that is in strong contrast to Bernanke’s dollar declinism.
Aside from the fact that Bernanke doesn’t look at gold or the dollar as price signals to guide his policy, we have witnessed a complete reversal of the Fed’s intellectual framework. By that I mean, for 20 years or so, first under Paul Volcker and then during Alan Greenspan’s first three terms, the Fed argued that the tax-cut effects of low inflation would spur economic growth and low unemployment. This period lasted roughly from the early 1980s until the end of the century. But since Bernanke came on the scene, the sound-money, stable-dollar argument has disappeared.
For most of this decade, the Fed has been fighting unemployment by pumping in easy money. And it keeps telling us this will not cause inflation. With the CPI hitting nearly 5 percent in 2006 and almost 6 percent in 2008, Bernanke was dead wrong. And the fact remains that more money creation from the Fed produces inflation -- not jobs or long-term economic growth. The housing and oil bubble, which led to the Great Recession, corroborates this.