A series of late-October, early November surprises has turned the midterm elections into a real horse race. The bullish stock markets of recent months have been saying all along that a Democratic tsunami will not materialize, but now even a decent Dem wave seems a long shot.
First, we have the John Kerry blunder: The Massachusetts senator badmouthed American troops in Iraq as a bunch of uneducated losers. This was typical antiwar elitism from Kerry, but his timing was impeccable. In a scorched-earth negative response, undecided and independent voters are flocking into the Republican camp, according to late-breaking polls from Pew and Washington Post/ABC.
Just as Walter Mondale infamously became the face of the Democratic Party on the eve of the 2002 midterms when he replaced Sen. Paul Wellstone on the Minnesota ballot (Wellstone was killed in a plane crash), John Kerry has become the face of the Democrats on the eve of the 2006 vote. It's a disaster for the Democrats -- and they know it. "Kerry's Blunder, Wall Street's Gain," read one financial headline.
Then, we have the blockbuster 4.4 percent unemployment rate, the last major front-page economic statistic to appear before the election. Jobs in the United States are booming, as government revisions clearly show. Corporate payrolls are rising at nearly 150,000 a month, but the more accurate household survey -- which measures the number of people working -- rose 426,000 in October, 420,000 per month over the last three months and 226,000 monthly across the whole year. Meanwhile, wages are growing at 4 percent -- almost twice as fast as the 2 percent inflation rate, which itself has been cut in half with plunging gasoline prices.
New polls show rising public approval of the economy as a result of blockbuster job creation, low unemployment, falling gas prices and a roaring stock market. It's not a coincidence that the Dow soared over 100 points Monday on news of the Pew poll that shows the Republican comeback. Democratic House campaign manager Rahm Emanuel told a Sunday TV news host: "This is making me nervous. ... I don't know what to make of it." It's called the low-tax economic boom, stupid.
Then we have Saddam Hussein's conviction and death sentence. This reminds American voters that there has been a good deal of progress in Iraq. Saddam and his mass-murdering crimes against humanity are a thing of the past. The Iraqi people have participated -- and in large numbers -- in three democratic elections in this former dictatorship. What was back-burner material is suddenly front-burner again.