In order to build on their recent polling successes, as well as their policy gains, the Bushies need to articulate a few basic points and then package them into a national message. In other words, they must nationalize the midterm elections of 2006, just as they did in 2002 (when they discussed terror war security) and just as the Gingrich Republicans did in 1994 (when smaller government, lower taxes and no socialized healthcare took center stage).
Staying the course in Iraq (where victory in terms of democratization and reconstruction is increasingly possible), withdrawing troops as the generals believe prudent and maintaining tough security measures to guard the homeland (by way of the Patriot Act, etc.) is the right wartime prescription. The Democrats will only be able to counter with more negativism and defeatism.
On the economy, Bush's pro-growth strategy should stress large-scale budget cuts (such as, for the first time, real cuts in pork-barrel spending, including corporate welfare) and permanent tax relief to sustain economic growth. The Democrats have no budget-cutting policy whatsoever, nor are they capable of developing one, while on tax cuts they have no answer except the tiresome mantra of tax hikes for the rich.
Citizens Against Government Waste calls 2005 a record year for pork. The group identified 13,997 pork projects in the fiscal 2005 appropriations bills, costing taxpayers $27.3 billion, an increase of 31 percent over fiscal 2004. These are sickening facts. The president must work overtime to erase them in 2006 and truly produce a taxpayer protection budget.
If Bush embraces such a Rep. Mike Pence approach, championed by the House Republican Study Committee, of shifting big-government conservatism back to limited-government conservatism, he will rejuvenate the GOP base. Moving government out of the way of the free-enterprise capitalist economy, while strengthening after-tax rewards for work and investment, is the best prescription for long-run growth. Clear progress on budget-deficit reduction will also impress independent voters, as will lower unemployment and continued job creation.
On both war and prosperity, Bush can craft a national message that will bring a GOP win, or at least a break-even result, in the 2006 midterms. There's also immigration, where Bush must stand his ground by strengthening border security law enforcement without harming the legitimate needs of American businesses. He must also stand firm on the confirmation of Judge Alito to the Supreme Court, and on protecting the unborn and traditional marriage. Aggressive campaigning on all these themes will do the trick.
Fundamentally, President Bush must rally the nation to his big-picture themes of victory, optimism, growth and progress. Democrats are pessimistic, negative and defeatist, so the contrast couldn't be clearer. If the president produces the policy merchandise, and makes the national sale, 2006 could be a very surprising political year, where once again the conventional wisdom is proven wrong.