Yet there is another jobs survey taken by the Labor Department. It?s called the Current Population Survey of Households and has been measuring unemployment all the way back to 1940. It scores the volume of people actually working, and includes self-employed entrepreneurs, which the payroll survey does not. It paints a much more rosy picture of the current jobs situation.
Rather than a net loss of jobs during the president?s first term, this survey shows that 1.7 million more people are working today than when Bush took office. If you figure in an inherited recession and the economic aftershocks of the 9/11 attacks, the survey shows that 3.4 million more people are working today. The unemployment rate, which is based on the household survey, is at a historically low 5.4 percent. A record level of 140 million Americans are now working.
Yet Bush never once mentioned this other survey. He seldom even mentioned the unemployment rate. He did talk about record home ownership, but he never tied his pro-growth tax cuts to the revival in gross domestic product, which has been rising at a 3.5 percent annual rate since the recession, in line with America?s long-term growth trend.
In other words, the president?s policies have restored American prosperity after unprecedented wartime shocks. Yet these simple facts and figures went largely unused while Kerry?s strong attacks on jobs went largely unanswered.
Just last Friday, the latest report on gross domestic product showed nearly 4 percent growth with very low inflation. Personal incomes are rising by about 5 percent, as is consumer spending. Business firms, which suffered the brunt of the recession, are now spending at a roughly 15 percent annual pace -- yet another sign of solid economic recovery.
Numerous Wall Street commentators cited the balanced low-inflationary growth of the economy as something that could be maintained for years to come. No boom, no bust --just solid sustainable economic growth. Add to that a dollop of record productivity gains and historically low interest rates, and it becomes clear why the temporary oil-price shock (largely from China demand) has hardly dented the economic rebound.
Oh, and did I forget that per capita GDP just recorded a new U.S. record high? It has, surpassing $40,000.
Even on the outsourcing question -- let alone outsourcing Tora Bora -- Bush could have struck back at Kerry. He could have pointed to numerous studies that show how outsourcing lost only a tiny fraction of jobs in the U.S., while the insourcing of jobs from foreign companies relocating in the U.S. has actually produced a job surplus. By the way, in the key battleground state of Ohio, foreign corporate relocation has produced thousands of new jobs -- a point I have not seen anyone on Team Bush make.
Cabinet officers like Treasury man John Snow and Commerce Secretary and First Friend Don Evans have been out on the campaign trail talking about the ?other? jobs survey, as well as lots of other positive economic stats. But they are not the president; they don?t command the front pages or the nightly news. Neither does Karen Hughes. Nor does Gen. DeLong. Only the president can do that, using the vast power of his office.
That key points on national security and the economy have been left unrebutted is one of the tragedies of this campaign. I still believe Bush will win, and I have already cast an absentee ballot to that end. He will win because the majority of voters will not wish to change horses in the middle of the global war against radical Islamism and its terrorist tactics. This is no time for on the job training for a new commander-in-chief, especially candidate Kerry who is so wishy-washy on the entire subject.
Bush will win because the U.S. has not experienced any attacks in over three years, and because he has been unwavering and steadfast in conducting this war. And while the economy has not been spectacular enough to satisfy his critics, it surely hasn?t been bad enough to merit turning the incumbent out of office.
If my view is wrong, however, and Bush is defeated, surely his failure to communicate his successes will be one of the main reasons for such a tragic defeat.