Noteworthy is the new horserace in New Jersey. The Newark Star Ledger/Eagleton/Rutgers poll shows Kerry?s lead has shrunk from 20 points to just 4. Why the drop? I have longed believed that voters in the traditionally blue-state region of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey harbor a lot of secret pro-Bush sentiment since 9/11. Nearly everyone there knows someone who lost a friend or family member in the World Trade Center. Folks in this tri-state area are going about their business each day, but deep down they fear it could happen again.
These voters may not agree with Bush on social policies, but they quietly agree with him on the Patriot Act, which has caught hundreds of terrorists on U.S. soil and has already stopped numerous planned attacks. They may not be thrilled about the messy campaign in Iraq, but they like Bush?s toughness and unyielding single-mindedness in the war and on homeland security. Simply, Bush is giving workers in this Democratic corridor great hope that they?ll return home safely to their families each and every night.
Bush may not win these states, but he will score a much higher popular vote than he did four years ago. Should he show up in the New York area once or twice in the next six weeks, he could conceivably pull off a huge upset.
Of course, measuring stock market performance seems almost insignificant when compared with getting loved ones home safely at night. But the stock market is not only a barometer of future wealth-creation, it has become a measure of future safety and security upon which wealth-creation depends.
In this light, a significant part of the political story is that broad stock averages have gone up 9 percent since mid-August (with growth-sensitive sectors like tech, consumers, financials, industrials, materials, and energy leading the way). The bounce parallels Bush?s recovery in the polls.
All of this undercuts another Kerry argument. There is no Hooveresque economy right now in the U.S. The stock market is predicting continued solid economic growth as far as the eye can see. A full 140 million people are working, a new U.S. record. The unemployment rate is at a historically low 5.4 percent. Businesses are investing and consumers are spending.
The economy may not be perfect. Homeland security may not be foolproof. But the polls and the stock market are predicting a strong Bush victory.