Trouble is, bad news from Iraq has drowned out good news from the economy. As a result, last year's spectacular stock-market rally generated by Bush's base constituency -- an investor class of 95 million shareholders who are eternally grateful for tax cuts on dividends, capital gains and personal income, and who cast two out of every three votes in the last two election cycles -- have lost some of the re-election faith as the stock market stalled during the first half of this year.
There has been some good news for the commander in chief on the political front. A recent Zogby poll shows Bush improving in the key battleground states. Conducted June 14-19, the survey shows Bush winning 285 Electoral College votes, compared to 253 for Kerry.
Sen. John McCain deprived Kerry of his dream-ticket veep choice when the Arizonian strongly endorsed Bush for re-election.
Even Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed positively to the Bush re-elect campaign by telling the world that Russian intelligence had evidence that Saddam Hussein intended to attack the United States. This is a bullet point that will undoubtedly resurface during the Bush/Kerry debates this fall.
Bush did wrangle a 15 to 0 victory in a watered-down U.N. Security Council endorsement of the Iraqi handover. Even punier, but still something, a shadow-of-its-former-self NATO will provide token support in the form of training for Iraqi security personnel.
Kerry has already retreated from his "jobless recovery" attack, and is now reduced to nitpicking the Bush boom with blandishments about helping the middle class. But tax hikes don't help anyone. And the Bushies are right in new ads that argue "pessimism never created a new job."
As for Kerry's other great campaign issue, "internationalizing the war," the United Nations and NATO decisions, along with the Iraqi handover, are events that substantially undercut this charge. Not even Divine Providence can budge the French and Germans who grew fat on Saddam's Oil-for-Food U.N. bounty and grew thin on shrinking defense resources caused by recessionary economies.
It takes a lot to unhorse an incumbent. In normal times, a booming economy such as this one would be more than sufficient to create a landslide for Bush.
Global terrorism and Iraq have made these times anything but normal. But any good news at all from the war fronts will surely generate another big stock-market rally. Watch stocks for the best leading election indicator.