The combination of a mild dose of monetary restraint along with faster economic growth should act to moderate inflation pressures. It's a good policy mix, and one that will produce GDP growth of 4 percent or more over the next few years with inflation just above 2 percent.

 Politically, however, it's the near-term economy that counts. The sense has been that the fledgling Bush boom has not yet registered with the public at large. But not so fast.

 Scott Rasmussen's latest nightly tracking polls show that 49 percent of most-likely voters trust Bush more on the economy, while only 41 percent trust Kerry. On national defense, 54 percent prefer Bush while only 38 percent are for Kerry.

 In the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll, 57 percent of respondents see Bush as a strong leader versus 42 percent for Kerry; 83 percent believe Bush stands firm on his beliefs, while only 48 percent see Kerry that way; and intensity among Bush voters is 70 percent, while Kerry gets a lukewarm 44 percent.

 A strong stock market will also help tilt the scales toward Bush this November. And there are three reasons to be bullish on the stock market. First, the economy is growing rapidly. Second, corporate profits are rising rapidly. And third, George W. Bush is the pro-growth candidate standing firm with pro-investor tax cuts. The stock market will want him back for another four years and will rally to this end.

 The most accurate gauge of recent election results -- going back to 1988 -- is the Iowa Electronic Presidential Winner-Take-All Market. This pay-to-play market has a better track record than the polls. Why? According James Surowiecki's new book, "The Wisdom of Crowds," the collective wisdom of ordinary people is smarter than the tabulations of the elite polling experts. Surowiecki specifically points to the Iowa market trading system as a superior election forecaster to the polls.

 So, what's the Iowa market telling us now? The Bush "contract" is currently trading at 54 cents on the dollar, while the Kerry contract is exchanging hands at 47 cents. Since trading began on June 1, Bush has steadily held this lead. There you have it. The market speaks.