John Ransom

The best recovery in the history of mankind has once again been put off indefinitely while government economists continue the search and rescue efforts to find the jobs that they created by rosy forecasts, but which seem to be missing from the real world results.

“Private-sector job creation was considerably less than expected in March,” reports CNBC, “indicating that the labor market's improvements could begin stalling. A joint report Wednesday from ADP and Moody's Analytics showed 158,000 new positions, well below economist expectations of 200,000. The report serves as a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, so the miss could cause economists to lower their projections.”

Amongst the losers were construction and service jobs, which as of late have been leading the charge amongst job creators.

Amongst the winners will be the stock indices, which will benefit from continued stimulus efforts by the firm of Bernanke, Barack, Lew & Associates. 

While some analysts have speculated that the inflationary risks of easy money polices would force the Federal Reserve to at least temper its quantitative easing policies, a poor jobs report means that it’s full-speed ahead for monetary stimulus.   

Just one month ago president Obama was trumpeting the February jobs report as “evidence that the recovery that began in mid-2009 is gaining traction.”

I wonder if today he’ll back up and say “It’s apparent now that the recovery is losing traction.”

Yeah, probably, but only if he can blame: 1) congressional Republicans; 2) George Bush; or 3) gun violence.

If it’s any consolation however, consider with me for a moment a scenario where the optimistic predictions of 2.5- 3 percent GDP growth are operative and jobs are created in quantities to offset unemployment.

Despite lower demand and much higher inventories oil stands at $95 per barrel.

The price of oil could easily reach $140 per barrel with even modest, sub-par 3 percent growth in our GDP.  And expect no less for basic materials, food and other energy supplies.

Just as a quick history lesson: It was oil prices, not subprime lending that finally, officially broke the back of financial markets in 2008 and caused not just a run on the bank, but a run on ALL banks.

Although subprime defaults did get things rolling.  


John Ransom

John Ransom is the Finance Editor for Townhall Finance.
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