Today we get to check in again on the economic and stock market forecast that I penned back on December 23rd, 2011.
Yeah. I know.
You all are used to my dazzling wit, political acumen, and my stylish turns of phrase. But really, I know quite a bit about finance too, even if I use my finance superpowers only on occasion and prefer to be the ringmaster here at Townhall Finance.
The slowdown that I predicted at that time has been a little less than my expectations. Right now GDP is coming in a little higher than I thought. But the second half is only half done, and the the 3rd quarter GDP number could undergo- will very likely undergo- heavy revision.
So my predictions have been close enough for Obama's horseshoe and hand grenade economy.
Below you'll find the salient part of the forecast, truncated for the stuff I wasn't right about- just kidding- it's truncated for the stuff I wrote that I find incredibly boring to read.
So what I'm REALLY saying is that below you'll find the most gripping economic forecast ever written and you REALLY SHOULD READ TO THE END.
In fact, unemployment will probably remain over 8 percent through the fall elections. Even more, U6 unemployment will likely remain higher than 15 percent. U6 accounts for those unemployed who have stopped looking for work and those who work only part-time for economic reasons.
While I don’t think GDP will be negative, it will be anemic; not enough to drive job growth or consumer confidence. Expect GDP to be lower than 1 percent for the full year, below the forecast by the OECD, although it probably won’t be apparent until the last half of the year. I expect that GDP forecasts will rise through the 2Q of 2012 as the Federal Reserve uses the last little liquidity tricks it has at its disposal to inflate GDP. By mid-summer however it will be apparent that the economy is slowing down- again.
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