Today I get to brag a little about the economic and stock market forecast that I penned back on December 23rd, 2011.
Yeah. I know. You all are used to my dazzling wit, political acumen, and my stylish turns of phrase. But really, I know quite a bit about finance too, even if I use my finance superpowers only on occasion and prefer to be the ringmaster here at Townhall Finance.
The slowdown that I predicted has been a little ahead of my expectations. But it's close enough for Obama's horseshoe and hand grenade economy.
Below you'll find the salient part of the forecast, truncated for the stuff I wasn't right about- just kidding- it's truncated for the stuff I wrote that I find incredibly boring to read. So what I'm saying is that below you'll find the most gripping economic forecast ever written and you REALLY SHOULD READ TO THE END.
In fact, unemployment will probably remain over 8 percent through the fall elections. Even more, U6 unemployment will likely remain higher than 15 percent. U6 accounts for those unemployed who have stopped looking for work and those who work only part-time for economic reasons.
While I don’t think GDP will be negative, it will be anemic; not enough to drive job growth or consumer confidence. Expect GDP to be lower than 1 percent for the full year, below the forecast by the OECD, although it probably won’t be apparent until the last half of the year. I expect that GDP forecasts will rise through the 2Q of 2012 as the Federal Reserve uses the last little liquidity tricks it has at its disposal to inflate GDP. By mid-summer however it will be apparent that the economy is slowing down- again.
Slow growth or outright contraction in Europe and in Asia will negatively affect US industry, but this will be offset a little by falling commodity prices, which will be beneficial to the domestic economy in that imports will be cheaper.
Let’s get something straight though: A year ago we were hearing about a dominant China or a dominant Europe. Both Europe and China are dependent upon a robust US economy for success. The world economy will not get better without the US as the driving engine of recovery. In order for the global economy to be jumpstarted, the world needs regime change in the US of A.
Let’s look at some figures: