Jeff  Carter

Sarah Palin has been constantly in the speculative storm. She has had an easy time of staying in the public’s collective conscious because so many on the left just want to smear her.

Bloggers, and even headline writers just put her name in the headline to draw traffic and eyeballs. My hits on this blog post will go up just because I put her name in the title.

Love her or hate her, she is polarizing.

I was reading ChicagoBoyz and ran across a post they had on Palin. They think she is in it to win it. They cite this article.

“They are very organized, and the team they have in place is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in this state before — and I’m totally impressed by the way they’ve gone about it,” she said. “It’s going to be a major upset if she gets in because I think these people are very underestimated.”

I am not sure yet. She is hauling in a boatload of money by staying in the public eye. Her daughter has made money by virtue of being a Palin.

I don’t care what Democrats think about Palin. They aren’t going ot vote for her or any other nominee from the opposing party. I fully expect that even a segment of the Democrats that are very unhappy with Obama today will still vote for him. For example, liberal Jews that dislike Obama’s attitude toward Israel will still vote over 75% for Obama in 2012. (Bet you a steak dinner on that one!)

The real question is independents, Reagan Democrats, and the mooshy Republicans.

Who are these mooshies? There is a large segment of the Republican Party that is highly educated, urbane and identified with the Arugula Obama in the last election. They might have even voted for him because of his credentialed background. Virtually none of the mushy Republicans are voting for Obama this time around. They are heavily influenced by their peer group and public perception. If they were to wear a Palin button on their lapel, they would lose face at their private dinner club. Palin may cause them to stay home.

Then there are people like me. I would vote for any Republican over Obama. He is so toxic to the economy, the country and the future that anyone the Republicans nominate will be a step in the right direction. We aren’t staying home.

The good news about Palin is all the bad stuff is already out there. The media can’t smear her any worse than they have already done. Through fiction, and aggressive techiques they have muckraked all they could. Yet, she is still there in the forefront of the public consciousness.

Many on the Democratic side are saying that there wil be a third party candidate, and speculate that it could be Donald Trump or Sarah Palin. Trump won’t run. He is the classic urbane mooshy Republican. He wants to sell books and buildings. He has debt to pay off. This line from the article is telling,

The 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee’s decision to use a Tea Party rally to make her first major Iowa speech this year is the latest indication that Palin’s campaign would wrap itself wholeheartedly in the movement that has redefined grass-roots conservative politics.

Palin is used to being on the outside and underestimated. She positioned herself in Alaska as the outsider that would reform government, and she did. How does that record not corellate with the view of the American public today?

Palin will not run in a third party. Even with social media, it’s just too darn expensive. The Tea Party right now is ensconsced in a battle for the soul of the Republican Party. They lose that battle, and a third party will emerge. See what happens in this election cycle, and the one in 2014. Obama better watch his left flank. That’s where a third party candidate will come from. Someone like Dennis Kucinich.


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Jeff Carter

Jeffrey Carter is an independent speculator. He has been trading since 1988. His blog site, Points and Figures was named by Minyanville as one of The 20 Most Influential Blogs in Financial Media.