Eurozone countries on June 9 agreed to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to stabilize the Spanish banking system. Because the bailout dealt with Spain's financial sector directly rather than involving the country's sovereign debt, Madrid did not face the kind of demands for more onerous austerity measures in exchange for the loan that have led to political instability in countries such as Greece.

There are two important aspects to this. First, yet another European financial problem has emerged requiring concerted action. Second, unlike previous incidents, this bailout was not accompanied by much melodrama, infighting or politically destabilizing threats. The Europeans have not solved the underlying problems that have led to these periodic crises, but they have now calibrated their management of the situation to minimize drama and thereby limit political fallout. The Spanish request for help without conditions, and the willingness of the Europeans to provide it, moves the European process to a new level. In a sense, it is a capitulation to the crisis.

This is a shift in the position of Europe's creditor nations, particularly Germany. Berlin has realized that it has no choice but to fund this and other bailouts. As an export-dependent country, Germany needs the eurozone to be able to buy German products. Moreover, Berlin cannot allow internal political pressures to destabilize the European Union as a whole. For all the German bravado about expelling countries, the preservation and even expansion of the existing system remains a fundamental German interest. The cycle of threats, capitulation by creditors, political unrest and then German accommodation had to be broken. It was not only failing to solve the crisis but also contributing to the eurozone's instability. In Spain, the Germans shifted their approach, resolving the temporary problem without a fight over more austerity.

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George Friedman

George Friedman

George Friedman is the CEO and chief intelligence officer of Stratfor, a private intelligence company located in Austin, TX.

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5 Comments So Far
tito18 Wrote: Jun 13, 2012 4:21 PM
It is clear to me that the fate of european nations will be delegated to the bankers who dispense money according to some formula devised by bankers. Unfortunately this model will not be short termed but will become the governing body and policy maker of europe. National sovereignty will be a thing of the past.
anonymous Wrote: Jun 13, 2012 10:09 AM
The world would be a better place financially if the European Union fell apart, then each country would be forced into fixing their debt, not just kicking down the road with more debt.........
Blair31 Wrote: Jun 13, 2012 9:11 AM
Margaret Thatcher was right about Europe.
johnm h Wrote: Jun 13, 2012 8:02 AM
There are three choices or outcomes. Domination by Germany. Return to the EC model with independant currencies but integrated trade, the breakdown of the free trade regime. Pushing for the first could lead to the last. Return to integrated trade should be the preferred outcome and is durable. The sooner the better for everyone.
loadstar Wrote: Jun 13, 2012 6:33 AM
The ObaMessiah has proposed TWO STRAIGHT budgets which each got NOOOO votes in Congress because they were so absurd...he totally blew off his own debt commission Simpson-Bowles, which HE had said was SO IMPORTANT....

END OF DISCUSSION!!! The Chosen One, a CLEAR European style socialist, does not care about debt and fiscal responsibility. The Obamanator WANTS us to become Greece!

Obamanable!