Yesterday morning we spent a fair amount of time listening to the arguments presented by the bear camp. To be sure, the list of negatives espoused by a friend and colleague was not all inclusive. I told my longtime friend that I had a deadline and that my readers don't tend to put up with more than a couple thousand words, so he agreed to keep it short and stick to the key points. And all in all, I think we did a pretty good job of offering up the glass-is-half-empty case.
However, in keeping in the spirit of the election season - where the media is supposed to give equal time (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) to both teams - I thought we should hear from the opposition today.
Given that I am a card carrying member of the glass-is-at-least-half-full club, I feel fairly qualified to present the bull case this morning. However, I do feel a need to offer up the very important caveat that my views and opinions of the market do not enter into my investing strategy. As I've mentioned a time or two hundred since I began penning my meandering morning market missive in 1999, I prefer to rely on the objective readings of my models when making investment decisions. This approach may not be right for everyone, but I must admit that the models do tend to get most of the big moves right and as a result; I tend to sleep pretty well at night.
If I had overslept and time was running short, I could probably cut to the chase and offer up just a single argument for our heroes in horns and call it good this morning. Well, okay, unless I was completely out of time, I'd likely toss in a second argument for good measure. You see, with the possible exceptions of the old Wall Street saws "buy low and sell high" and "let your winners run and cut your losses short," perhaps the two most important Wall Street-isms apply right here, right now.
The first is "Don't fight the Fed." And over the years, I have added my own take on this particular bit of Wall Street lore by adding "Especially when they are on a mission." In short, this means that when the Fed is attempting to either stimulate or slow down the economy, history makes it pretty clear that they tend to get their way. History also shows that when the Fed is trying to make things go, the stock markets (SPY, DIA, QQQ, MDY, IWM) tends to "go" as well.