As illustrated by this chart, economists are lousy forecasters.
To be more specific, economists are no better than fortune tellers when trying to make short-run macroeconomic forecasts. Heck, if we actually knew what was going to happen over the next 12 months, we’d all be billionaires.
But we can (on occasion) make sensible predictions about the long-run impact of various government policies. All other things being equal, for instance, it’s safe to say that countries with bigger governments will grow slower than nations that don’t divert as many resources from the private sector. Even theWorld Bank and European Central Bank agree with that common-sense proposition.
Another can’t-fail prediction is that bailouts will reward bad behavior and lead to dependency. That’s why I’m not at all surprised by the news that Greece will get another bailout. Indeed, if there was a least-surprising-headline contest, it would go to the EU Observer for this headline.
A third bailout? You mean the first two didn’t work? I’m shocked! Which is why we need to change to a least-surprising-headlines contest, because we also have this headline from City AM.
Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for Friday, March 7th, 2014 | John Ransom