What goes up must come down
spinnin' wheel, got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles, it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony, let the spinnin' wheel spin
-Blood, Sweat & Tears
On a day where the (Victim of the Day) wheel stopped on women, the world's most powerful woman on this planet was the 5 feet, 3 inches tall, chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. For me, it was not just the continued effort to appease Wall Street while tapering off quantitative easing, but it was her tightening grip on the monetary agency. We knew the Fed would try to have its cake and eat it too, but lately there has been a louder-than-normal dissent.
So, the question coming into the day is how unifying would the message of the Fed be, as it takes the tiniest of steps to reduce the most extraordinary measures upon which it has ever embarked.
There it was in the minutes of the March 18-19 meeting:
With respect to forward guidance about the federal funds rate, all members judged that, as the unemployment rate was likely to fall below 6-1/2 percent before long, it was appropriate to replace the existing quantitative thresholds at this meeting.
All the members of the Fed agreed to move away from its previous threshold of 6.5% unemployment as a trigger for changing policy course. This is a big deal, since that number could hit relatively soon, although the better news would be that the rate was moving higher, as more people bought back into the notion of hitting the bricks and finding a job. Nevertheless, the Fed could not take any chances. The great epiphany moment, when everyone decided to find a job, has been very elusive thus far.
Since the truth is unless people buy into that idea, then there's a chance a person could view employment as taking an economic step back by missing all those juicy quick benefits of cooling their heels on the sidelines by climbing that proverbial ladder, making the unemployment rate mean nothing. The real rate is still north of 10% and the long-term unemployed rate is stubbornly near four million people. It is odd that the Fed played that unemployment game in the first place.
Wheel of Victimhood