Charles Payne

We all known about the notion of getting a lump of coal in our Christmas stocking, but maybe this year coal could be the hottest thing to own when the holidays come around. I like the action in coal the last week or so as well as other beaten down niches like agricultural nutrients. One thing about severely beaten down sectors is that they always come back in a very stealthy manner but not before a few false starts. They also come back before the fundamentals give a clear cut buy signal-but a string of positive hints, some could even call them anecdotal. 

The most abundant and most hated source of energy looks compelling.

What if?

Europe has hit a bottom and begins to turn around?
China is only lying a little about their economy and growth rebounds north of 8%?
The Fed stops printing money because the worst is over and 160,000 job gains a month is the new normal?
What could happen to the stock market? Well, we are told to brace for a massive correction as the market is only up on Federal Reserve money-printing. People that have collected guns, thousands of rounds of ammo, and pounds of gold bricks but never read income statements in their lives are joined by supposed experts calling for Armageddon. In a way it's funny because all the guns and ammo stocks have soared and at the very least people could have been paid to be paranoid. Of course paper money means nothing when the world hits re-set, but until then I'll keep gathering the stuff to live this odd thing called life.

Ironically some people are so eager for the end of the world they're pissed when the Fed prints money and pissed when the Fed stops printing money. 

I hate the Federal Reserve printing money and think the whole thing is a scam designed to protect the super wealthy (for the record that includes Obama and his inner circle) and banks at the expense of Main Street. Their actions never seem to really help, and by the time funds from all their shenanigans begin to seep out to Main Street, we see inflation rear its ugly head (see Japan, where prices spiked immediately even as incomes remained flat). Be that as it may, I want to remind everyone tapering is different than raising interest rates.
Tapering means buying fewer assets each month
Rate hikes means the economy is improving fast enough to make money scarcer

We are years from the Fed hiking rates, but that doesn't mean the Street will not freak out with some kind of pity party. I just happen to think such whining will create opportunities. In the meantime perhaps the best action and most underreported news of the week has been the rebound in commodities and commodity stocks. The action could reflect short-term trading as this is one of the few sectors not up for the year, or it could be a sign a bottom is being put into place. I lean toward the latter and think the traditional role of the market as a harbinger of economy six months out is at work as it applies to certain sectors like coal.

Modern Welfare State:
I hosted Cavuto on the Fox Business Network last night and this was the main topic of the evening. I discussed with Michelle Fields of Next Generation TV about this topic and its ramifications: 

I worry midterm elections could provide a chance for these plans to change America into the Europe that ruled the world in the 1800's only to squander their position through a series of political systems that reduced the need to make bold decisions.

For them mankind had come so far from those cave dwelling days that it wasn't about hunting for food day to day, but spreading enormous wealth and making prosperity equally shared even if not equally earned.

This could be the next America.

I worry as much about a stumbling GOP not being able to articulate the problems of a modern welfare state without sounding mean-spirited, racist, or offering the counter argument in an attractive manner. 

The Market
It looks as if the market will have a down week, but it was a great week for those trying to find true winners and losers. You can't make it out of any earnings season without getting scorched here and there, but winners have been richly rewarded and should continue to move higher.

Charles Payne

Charles V. Payne is a regular contributor to the Fox Business and Fox News Networks. He is also the Chief Executive Officer and Principle Analyst of Wall Street Strategies, Inc. (WSSI), founded in 1991 which provides subscription analytical services to both individual and institutional investors.