Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear
Makin the tears rain down like a Mon-soon
Listen to the bass go BOOM
LL Cool J
Last night LL Cool J hosted the Grammy Awards, and I couldn't think of how appropriate several of his songs are for the week. The State of the Union address is tomorrow night, and for sure President Obama will follow the advice from LL's mom and go for the knockout blow. The idea will be to make policies that only since a few years ago seemed reasonable and necessary. There will be the notion that government is the last best chance to create jobs rather than conditions where jobs can be created via the private sector. There will be more talk of fairness along with other ideological topics.
There will probably be more on same sex marriage along with immigration, amnesty, and the new war on guns. I still find it amazing that those that say it's impossible to round up 11 million illegal immigrants and say that this action is unfair as most have been law-abiding residents still say it's reasonable to round up 300 million guns from law-abiding citizens, and at the same time these individuals demonize law-abiding organizations that stand up for their rights. I'm not sure where the gun law fight will go, but I know it's the wrong fight in a nation besieged with violence, hate, and self-destruction.
I can only hope there is a more conciliatory tone than there was at the inauguration where the gauntlet was thrown down and compromise wasn't even a consideration. I get going old school and wish more beefs in the street were settled with good old fashioned fist fights where the winner and loser won respect and peace was the only thing left in the aftermath. Unfortunately, there will be no peace in Washington unless republicans are prepared to take a dive against all their beliefs along with independent thought. Maybe they are at that point, and all it takes is one more rough and tumble speech to spook them out of their boots.
While that drama plays out, there's the issue of the economy and the stock market.
Don't Call It a Comeback -The Economy
It is beyond ridiculous how sorry this economy is, no matter what the circumstances. If I were trying to cover up the track record, I might point to a permanent change in life such as the impact of robots and computers. Sure, President Bush makes for a great foil, but that chestnut of an excuse is well past its expiration date. But this drone controversy is a good way to say to people that jobs are going to machines, and it's an irreversible trend. One day we could have an Air Force where nobody knows how to fly a plane. The same thing could happen with driving cars, welding, and typing.
Heck, not too long ago I was going to write a personal note and discovered I've forgotten how to write in cursive.
Of course that world of robots isn't here yet, even thirty years after Styx warned that Mr. Roboto et al. taking all the jobs and liberties from mankind. The good news, if you can call it that, is people have lowered their expectations, so bad news is now elevated to okay news. But, the economy hasn't come back anywhere near the potential of America or the recoveries of the past. The media calls it a comeback, however, in the sense that two pennies are worth more than one but not enough to claim financial success. There is no honesty among most of the mainstream media, now committed to finding the silver lining. That brings us to the stock market.
Don't Call It a Comeback - The Stock Market
The rally hasn't been here for years, but I watched a decade of solid earnings completely dismissed by the market even when the Dow was back to all-time highs. Perhaps the market knew the housing bubble was bursting, but why would it be at a high even one that still discounted billions in accumulated profits? So, all of a sudden corporate earnings are beginning to influence share prices in a positive manner, and it seems like such an odd time and completely disconnected from reality. There is an argument for that, also less outlays to workers, but my point about the global economy is the best fundamental reason that justifies the rally.
Yes, we can quibble about why now, but it's not totally unjustified-it's been here for years but first was held back from post market crash resentment and fear, then the aftermath of the housing implosion, and now ironically under the least business-friendly regime, the market is exhibiting all the wonderment of capitalism.
But you wonder what could knock it out.
Well ... at some point there is a distinct difference between getting by on mediocre growth and actually watching the economy stall completely. Although put in at the demands of democrats, many are setting up sequestration as the reason for another recession (as if the last one ever ended for most people) and to blame republicans, but the fact of the matter is a real recovery wouldn't fall apart over sequestration.