It was an odd session in which we saw stocks move higher even though Spain and Italy watched their markets plunge, and several big companies posted disappointing results including UPS. Those results did underscore the notion the US economy is doing better while the global economy is slowing. From a micro level that's important, although longer term trends clearly favor the rest of the globe. The good news is we continue to be reminded this is a dynamic economy that has withstood a barrage of attacks from the most powerful office in the world. The sad news is we could be rocking so much more. We actually could use this lull in the global economy to lengthen our lead.
Yesterday UPS missed the street, but it wasn't because of America.
But yesterday wasn't about corporate earnings (of the 45 S&P companies that posted results 18 or 40% missed) or the United States economy but further fleshing out of a consensus on where the Federal Reserve stands. It's not overwhelming but the street is leaning toward a conventional wisdom Bernanke is not done weaving his magic. Hence, a bigger move yesterday than the Apple led rebound on Tuesday. It's why gold edged higher, too. Still, this market rally has been stealthy from the very beginning and continues to be the least talked about rally in my professional career.
Here's the rub-I like it!
Part of me is sad so many Americans have given up on the stock market and the notion of ownership. I'm the pied piper of ownership-don't give up on it! Own a house, own land, own gold; own a business including the biggest and best in the world through the stock market. Hey, don't get me wrong, our cash levels have been elevated for more than a month. But, we are offering new ideas and we are going to make money in the stock market. Back to being excited that so many are missing the market; at some point, they all come back in. I plan to have positions up huge when the Dow hits 14,000 because I think the masses will break open the flood gates.
This is the nature of human beings and all their emotions. Of course, there are valid reasons to be concerned and frustrated and angry but things could get better in November.
The Pros Sulking Too
Not only have novice or retail investors missed this remarkable rally, the pros have been too skeptical for too long and are getting more bearish.