Bill Tatro
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Why is it that we can no longer believe our government? Undoubtedly, every U.S. citizen would like to trust the entire administration, yet in regards to all the unbridled liberal partisans who are strongly voicing their opinions these days, it seems as though they’ll still believe everything they hear, no matter how much fairy dust is being sprinkled on the numbers.

At the end of this year, extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to expire. Thus, one million-plus people will be directly affected. More than likely, most of these same individuals will simply convert to disability benefits, as it will be magically determined that their ability to work has been affected by some sort of social disorder, which I believe is now being paid for by health insurance policies under Obamacare. And more importantly when it comes to these one million-plus individuals is the idea that perhaps this group will not be considered as part of the labor participation pool as it pertains to the unemployment calculation reported by the BLS. Consequently, the unemployment rate could drop by as much as 0.8%, bringing to total to 6.2%. When and if that happens, Herr Obama will be trumpeting the programs of the administration as being successful in finally overcoming the alleged debacle that was handed to him by George W. Bush.

Coupling the decline in the labor participation pool with the infamous calculation of the birth/death ratio — whereby monthly net employment of business birthing (coming into existence) and businesses dying (going out of business) is assumed and not verified — could reduce the unemployment rate to levels not seen in decades. Should that happen, a quandary would definitely be realized. That’s because Fed “tapering” based upon full employment would need to be completed, according to Ben Bernanke. Thus, it would create all sorts of financial market fiascoes. Moreover, tax and spending models based upon full employment would be reinstituted and developed based upon this so-called phantom income.

Fictional numbers can play quite well in the mainstream media. However, when the truth is known and it is seen how many programs, policies, and decisions are predicated on those numbers, then the biblical notion of building a house on sand will most certainly become reality.

Indeed, the outcome might appear to be acceptable as long as there’s fair weather. But at the first sign of trouble, financial market collapse could be inevitable. So, continue to believe and the fairy dust will continue to be sprinkled.

When figures lie and liars figure, the outcome is never what we wished it to be.

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Bill Tatro

Along with his 40-years of dedication in the financial services industry, Bill is the President and CEO of GPSforLife, has authored a highly successful book entitled The One-Hour Survival Guide for the Downsized, acts as editor-in-chief of his dynamic monthly financial newsletter MacroProfit, maintains his very own website at billtatro.com, and faithfully continues his third decade on the radio with It’s All About Money which can be heard Monday through Friday on Money Radio 1510 KFNN (Phoenix, AZ). Bill can be reached via email: gpsforlife@yahoo.com.
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