We are getting closer to the presidential election, but we are also getting closer to the fiscal cliff.
Most financial markets have built-in the assumption that reason will prevail and, once again, we will witness a weeping John Boehner appear before the microphone with deal in hand.
Not something that occurs right away, of course, except for the reduced taxes and increased spending, but something that will benefit all of us in 2022, just a few short years down the road. Notice that I didn’t mention the word “can,” aren’t you tired of that analogy?
However, just imagine on the outside chance that there is no deal, what if there is no road to go down and the game of chicken is played to the end?
John Nash, an inveterate game player, always predicted that someone would eventually blink even if it was at the so-called 11th hour.
But what if no one did blink?
If Obama loses, he may take the attitude that “it’s not my problem.”
The Democrats may become the obstructionists and Romney may need to go back to the drawing board, given the calamitous results of going over that apparent fiscal cliff.
If, on the other hand, Obama wins and the Republicans become the obstructionists as revenge for all the misguided votes, it would seem the White House would be prepared with plan B. The gang from Chicago showed great organization and preparation in Obama’s first presidential run and there is no reason to believe that they are not as prepared this time for not only the election, but also the immediate aftermath.
So far, the presidential race has great feel and attitude that is very reminiscent of the second election campaign of FDR in 1936.
With Roosevelt winning in a landslide, not only did the economy move from a small recovery to Depression #2, but we also moved closer and closer to a worldwide global conflict at that time. FDR longed to support Britain, not only with money and arms (Lend-Lease), but also with boots on the ground.
An America that vehemently wanted to stay out of an armed conflict was rallied to forsake the isolationism mantra after December 7, 1941.
How do we unite parties, people, and philosophies when they seem almost ununitable?
Think about history and then ask yourself, what is conceivably Obama’s plan B? What, not possible you say?
Well, Sherlock Holmes once said “eliminate the improbable and even if what remains is impossible, it is the answer.”
es, a very frightening answer.
Only time will tell.
New Time 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for Thursday April 17th, 2014 | John Ransom
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