Bill Tatro

As the central bankers of the world try to avoid the impossible, it suddenly occurred to me that the citizens of the U.S. are also attempting the exact same thing. 

As most good economists know, the economic cycle of growth has certain undeniable stages. 

Starting with growth, we then move to the excessive boom

Yet, it seems that after everyone is finally in, the balloon bursts and the bust phase commences.  At this point the inevitable contraction occurs.

Company after company fails, people are unemployed, houses are foreclosed upon, and financial collapse is everywhere. 

Amidst this dramatic contraction event, however, come the first truly green shoots.  New businesses replace old businesses, entrepreneurs jump into the fray, and many people lick their wounds as consolidation takes over. 

Eventually, the cycle repeats itself with growth, boom, bust, contraction, and consolidation being the constant order of events. 

However, in 2008, Ben Bernanke and friends decided that the contraction phase, so necessary to the eventual growth resurgence, could be avoided. 

With historically low interest rates and excessive printing of money, it was the Keynesian belief that the bust phase could jump ahead to growth phase, thus bypassing contraction and consolidation altogether. 

Nevertheless, no matter how many QEs are thrown at the problem the traditional business cycle will not be denied and the inevitable is only postponed.  In addition, the unintended consequence of such a Keynesian strategy only compounds the problem as every issue seems to be more exaggerated and more worldwide. 

Likewise, there is also a cycle of human emotions.  For those who are unemployed, been foreclosed on, or experienced bankruptcy, they know these emotions very, very, well.  Fortunately, the majority of Americans are not experiencing these financial woes. 

Yet, if they did, they would know this cycle almost intimately.  It starts with complacency.  “I know things are bad, but it’s all happening to everyone else, not me.”  Next, concern arises.  “Is it possible my company will layoff, what’s that going to look like?” 

Then, worry enters the equation as unemployment becomes a real possibility and could be inevitable. 

Worry is followed by fear that the hope for a turnaround of individual circumstances may not be a short period of time.


Bill Tatro

Along with his 40-years of dedication in the financial services industry, Bill is the President and CEO of GPSforLife, has recently authored a highly successful book entitled 44th: A Presidential Conspiracy, publishes his dynamic monthly financial newsletter MacroProfit, and faithfully continues his third decade on the radio with It’s All About Money, which can be heard weekdays on Money Radio in Phoenix and in podcast form on his website (and on smartphone apps) published at billtatro.com weekdays at 5pm Eastern. Bill can be reached via email at bill@gpsforlife.com and on Twitter @tatroshow.