Coming off the worst year in
more than half a centuryfor dividends, investors need to
rethink their strategies for income generation.
Gone are the days when you could buy a dividend-paying
stock simply because it's a blue chip, and forget about it
until retirement. The quick annihilation of dividends at
once-reliable companies like Wachovia quickly dispelled that
illusion.
For that matter, you'd also be wise to disregard
mechanical strategies like
dividend-weighted exchange-traded fundsthat might only
work under "normal" market conditions.
Instead, it's time to get back to basics.
The keys to success
When researching strong and sustainable
dividend-paying stocks for your portfolio, you'll want to
focus on those that meet these five criteria.
1. An above-average dividend yield: If you're
specifically setting out to find an income-generating stock,
make it worth your while. There's no reason to settle for a
below-average yield, so use the S&P 500 as a benchmark
and screen for stocks with yields above the index's average
(currently around 1.8%).
2. Sufficient free cash flow cover: Earnings
are an accountant's opinion, but cash is a fact. It's
important that the company generates enough free cash flow
(cash from operations minus capital expenditures) to cover
its dividend payouts. If the dividend payouts significantly
outweigh the free cash flow, the sustainability of the
dividend is in question. A reasonable free cash flow payout
ratio (dividends paid / free cash flow) should be below
80%.
3. A history of dividend hikes: While a good
track record in itself is no guarantee of future payouts, I
do like to see a dividend-paying company with a history of
rewarding shareholders by increasing its payout in line with
earnings growth.
Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) has boosted its
payout for 42 consecutive years and
Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) has done the
same for 53 years.
4. A solid balance sheet: As we've been
reminded over the past 18 months, creditors have a greater
claim to a company's earnings and assets than common
shareholders. If a company can't repay its creditors, it
won't be able to pay you dividends. Look for stocks with
interest coverage ratios (EBIT / interest expense) of more
than 3.0, but preferably higher. A company with an interest
coverage ratio below 1.5 is in danger of being unable to
repay its creditors.
5. Undervalued versus the market: You want to
buy dividend-paying stocks when they're trading at value
prices. Outside of doing a formal discounted cash flow
valuation, a good rule of thumb is to look for companies
trading at price-to-earnings multiples below the current
S&P 500 average (today, it's about 16 times next year's
earnings).
There are no hidden tricks or magic formulas here, just
reasonable and traditional criteria to help us find strong
dividend stocks.
Gimme shelter
Using these five criteria, I screened for
stocks trading on a major U.S. exchange with a market cap of
more than $1 billion.
Here are five of the results:
Company
Yield
FCF Payout Ratio
3-Year Dividend Growth Rate
Interest Coverage Ratio
Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio
Molson Coors
(NYSE: TAP)
2.1%
26%
11%
4.8
11.7
Waste Management
(NYSE: WM)
3.5%
53%
10%
4.6
15.9
Eli Lilly
(NYSE: LLY)
5.5%
54%
7%
22.3
8.2
Reynolds American
(NYSE: RAI) Continued... |