In late May, I decided it was time to
take noteof
Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM). Unlike
Venoco (NYSE: VQ) -- a
West Coast oil playerthat promptly rocketed higher
following my positive call -- Talisman's share price hasn't
moved much since I took a shine to the Canadian E&P. The
company's third quarter report shows the business to be
coming along just fine.
During the period, Talisman's production averaged a hair
over 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Year-to-date,
production from continuing operations has notched a 2% rise.
That's modest compared to the
efficient growthover at
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), but
Talisman's future growth outlook looks quite solid.
Take the firm's recently expanded footprint in two of its
key North American unconventional plays.
First, there's the Marcellus Shale. Talisman has doubled
its "Tier 1" (i.e. economic at $4 natural gas) leasehold to
180,000 acres this year. That's small compared to
Range Resources ' (NYSE: RRC)
"fairway" footprint, but still translates to an estimated
1,800 potential well locations. Talisman is producing over 50
million cubic feet per day in the Marcellus, putting it neck
and neck with
Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG), an
unloved companythat's also concentrating on the
northeastern Pennsylvania portion of the play.
In Canada, Talisman is focused on the Montney and Utica
shales, but the former is closer to commercialization. The
greater Montney play, which straddles the BC/Alberta border,
is huge, with industry estimates of up to 600 trillion cubic
feet of original gas in place (even more than in the
Marcellus). No wonder
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-B) was so eager
to snap up Duvernay Oil last year.
Talisman divides its interests here between the Montney
Core (primarily sand/siltstone geology) and the Montney
Shale. Both plays are amenable to horizontal drilling, so the
two are easily conflated. The shale play will see 20 pilot
wells drilled this year, with commercialization expected in
2010.
With six rigs running by year-end in the Marcellus, this
play will be a bigger growth driver in the near term. Both
plays have great potential over the next decade and beyond.
The Utica is a wild card at this point, but probably merits
at least a modest nod in your valuation.
Speaking of which, Talisman shares look quite attractive
on the basis of current production, which, like
Apache (NYSE: APA), is well balanced both
geographically and between oil and gas. This remains one of
the best investment opportunities among the larger
E&Ps.
This article was originally published as
There's Still Time to Buy Talismanon
Fool.com
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