Back in April, I noted that the oil sands were
shiftingunder
Total SA 's (NYSE: TOT) feet. With the
backdrop of lower oil prices and a decidedly shaky macro
environment, the company was delaying its decision regarding
the development of its massive Joslyn project, shared with
partner
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), as well as
the less high-profile
INPEX and Laricina Energy.
Notably, Total also said it was dropping its
attempted takeoverof UTS Energy, a partner in
Suncor 's (NYSE: SU) and
Teck Resources ' (NYSE: TCK) Fort Hills
project. True to its word, the company simply walked away. So
has Total Canada's CEO, though he remains with the company in
a different role.
The new man at the helm, Jean-Michel Gires, is a company
veteran who has focused his energies on sustainable
development and environmental matters. This seems a logical
choice, given the lightning rod that the oil sands have
become. Just last month, we saw protest actions by Greenpeace
at both Suncor's and
Royal Dutch Shell 's (NYSE: RDS-A)(NYSE:
RDS-B) oil sands operations. Gires is credited with earning
Total the top spot among global oil & gas companies in
Dow Jones' sustainability rankings. Joslyn, a bitumen mining
operation seeking ultimate production of 200,000 barrels per
day, could use all the green cred it can get.
That is, if Total ever decides to move ahead with the
monster. This week, Gires stated that Total needs to see $80-
to $85-a-barrel oil in order to move ahead with Joslyn.
That's actually a touch lower than the $85 to $90 range the
company was talking about
last December. A final investment decision on Joslyn now
looks like a late 2011 event, with a potential production
start date in the 2016 to 2018 time frame.
Given the medium-to long-term term outlook for oil, I do
expect Total to make the huge investment required to get this
project up and running. If you believe that oil prices are
headed back more than $100 in the years and decades ahead,
you may be happy to see these barrels left in the ground for
now. By the middle of the next decade, I also expect that
oil-sands recovery techniques will have advanced, reducing at
least some of the controversial environmental aspects of the
project. Viewed in this way, there are some benefits evident
in this delay.
This article was originally published as
A Total Oil Sands Shakeupon
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