In one of the most satisfying series of articles I've
penned for the Fool, I recently stepped through the process
that I personally employ when investigating an unfamiliar
stock for the very first time. Sure, it happened to be an oil
and gas producer, but I think any reader interested in
sleuthing a stock, whether it's a value name like
Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) or a
hot new IPOlike
A123 Systems (Nasdaq: AONE), should find the
articles of interest. In case you missed it, here's a
breakdown of the series.
In
Part 1, we met
Gulfport Energy (Nasdaq: GPOR), a small-cap
exploration and production (E&P) company. Straight off
the bat, we eyeballed the firm's share structure and
capitalization. You wouldn't assemble a fantasy baseball team
without studying players' stats, right? So it goes with stock
picking. This quick review highlighted a debt load that
required immediate attention, and a reading of the most
recent SEC filings revealed a somewhat strained liquidity
situation. We concluded that, like
ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG) and
Hercules Offshore (Nasdaq: HERO) this week,
Gulfport will likely issue stock to pay down debt.
In
Part 2, we sized up the players involved, from the Board
and management to key shareholders. This pointed us to a
tangled web of relationships centered on Wexford Capital,
which is also involved with
Bronco Drilling (Nasdaq: BRNC) and the
recently restructured
Energy Partners Ltd , where a former Gulfport
CEO now runs the show. Gulfport's proxy made for interesting
reading, with all sorts of related party transactions
detailed.
From there we proceeded to
Part 3and
Part 4, in which we assessed Gulfport's production and
reserves. Some unfavorable findings here nearly led me to
throw in the towel, but a few Fools urged me to continue. I'm
glad they did, because that gave us a chance to cover another
rather distinct aspect of the business -- Gulfport's stake in
the Canadian oil sands. You can read all about that in
Part 5.
We concluded with a preliminary valuation in
Part 6, primarily using market transaction multiples to
value each piece of the corporate pie. This approach
increases our reliance on prevailing sentiment, but avoids
forecasting folly. I won't spoil the ending, but I should
mention that if we were correct in Part 1 to assume that a
share dilution is coming, my estimate of Gulfport's per-share
value would currently be too high.
So newbies, are you still feeling in the dark when it
comes to oil and gas investing? Or, for those more advanced
investors, do you think I flubbed something in my analysis,
or overlooked an important topic? Let's talk it out in the
comments section below. And if you have questions about where
I dug up any of the information cited throughout the series,
or have other oil and gas companies you would like to see
covered, let me know!
This article was originally published as
How to Research an Oil Stockon
Fool.com
Copyright 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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