Howdy, Fools. Last week, I made an attempt to share with
you exactly how I approach an unfamiliar oil stock for the
first time. I chose
Gulfport Energy (Nasdaq: GPOR) for the
exercise, figuring that its small size and fairly
concentrated operations would yield to a simple analysis
relative to larger E&Ps like
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) or
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). Nevertheless, we've
faced a few curve balls.
Over the course of three installments, we've reviewed
everything from Gulfport's
share structureto its
board compositionand
production profile. I was ready to move on when a few
reserve classification numbers didn't add up, but a few of
you asked me to continue, so let's proceed.
The race to replace
In a business where you're dealing with a depleting
asset like oil, the pressure's always on to add new reserves
to replace the ones you've just produced. That's the only way
to keep the cash-flow engine humming.
Companies with high reserve replacement ratios (reserve
additions divided by production) and low finding costs (the
per-barrel cost of those reserve additions) can be counted on
to trumpet these figures loudly each year. These tend to be
folks like
Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK) and
EQT (NYSE: EQT) -- onshore companies with
highly repeatable resource plays.
In contrast to these rapid growers, Gulfport's proved
reserves have barely budged over the years. Reserve totals in
2008 were a bit lower than those in 1997, with modest
fluctuations throughout the intervening years. Now, that's
not necessarily a bad situation, so long as reserve levels
are sustained cost-effectively. Let's look at the past few
years in greater detail.
When reserve adds go bad
For 2006, Gulfport broke out price and
performance-based revisions in its annual results press
release. The company hasn't made these helpful disclosures in
subsequent years.
Performance, rather than commodity price declines,
accounted for 94% of the negative 0.57 million BOE revision.
That's a large revision, knocking off more than a third of
the 1.54 million BOE in organic reserve additions. Recurring
negative performance revisions would indicate that prior
reserve bookings were too optimistic.
It's too bad we don't know the breakdown for 2005, which
also saw negative revisions. We do know, however, that
year-end prices in 2005 were $57.75 per barrel and $10.08 per
million BTU, compared to $40.25 and $6.18, respectively, at
the end of 2004. It doesn't look like price declines were
much of a factor in the 2005 revision, either.
Turning to the 2006 annual report, we notice a funny
thing. Oil reserve revisions are marked as a
positive1.02 million barrels. Gas revisions, after
conversion to BOE, are slightly negative at 0.05 million BOE.
That nets out to a positive 0.97 million BOE revision, versus
the negative 0.57 million BOE figure we saw a moment ago.
Ah, I see what Gulfport has done. They've added drill bit
reserve additions to the negative revisions and reported the
net change on a single line item called "Revisions of prior
reserve estimates." This is strange, as the word "revision"
has a very specific meaning in reserve reporting, and FAS 69
requires that reserves added through extension and discovery
(i.e., through the drill bit) be reported separately.
Gulfport used this same shorthand in 2007.
At least the firm properly separated these entires in its
2008 10-K, bringing Gulfport up to a very basic reporting
standard met by peers like
Petroquest Energy (NYSE: PQ) and
Clayton Williams Energy (Nasdaq: CWEI) in
their own annual filings.
Where were we?
Sorry for the diversion. In light of the difficulties
we had with reserve percentages in the last installment, I
deemed it important to check the addition on these reserves
additions. These financial statements have really given me
some headaches.
Now, bracketing off the issue of negative performance
revisions for a moment, let's look at gross organic reserve
replacement ratios …
Year
Extensions and Discoveries (Millions of
BOE)
Production (Thousands of BOE)
Reserve Replacement Ratio
2005
n/a
613
n/a
2006
1,544
983
157%
2007
1,422
1,637
87%
2008
1,643
1,763
93%
Data from company press
releases.
… and finding costs over the past few
years:
Year
Extensions and Discoveries (Thousands of
BOE)
Continued... |