There I was, eating breakfast, looking out over downtown
Hohhot, sipping Mongolian milk tea, and flipping through the
China Daily. I was wondering whether it was worth it
-- traveling more than 7,000 miles from Washington, D.C., to
Inner Mongolia in search of the next big stock idea -- when I
came across an article that made me believe it was.
But before I get to the contents of that article, I
want to address something from
The Wall Street Journalthis past weekend about which
I've received a number of emails. Professor Elroy Dimson of
the London Business School now argues that "the economies
with the highest growth produce the lowest stock returns --
by an immense margin."
This makes no sense
According to Dimson's study, stocks in the
countries that have produced the most dramatic economic
growth over the past decade -- think China, India, Brazil,
and the like -- have on average delivered just 6% returns to
investors. That's compared to 12% returns in the world's
slower-growing, developed nations.
The reason for this, of course, is valuation. Tech
stocks such as
Wave Systems (Nasdaq: WAVX),
Red Hat (NYSE: RHT),
Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA), and
RealNetworks (Nasdaq: RNWK) have produced
negative returns since 1999, despite growing their revenues
at more than 10% annually over that time, because investors
bid their stock prices up too high. Same goes for stocks in
emerging markets.
Investors see the eye-popping development taking place in
China and Brazil -- and, yes, that development is real -- but
they end up paying far too much to get a piece of it in their
portfolios.
In other words, there's a valuation trap when it comes
to investing in high-growth emerging markets. To capture
their growth, you need to be willing to buy into them when
their valuations plummet, which is usually when some kind of
economic crisis strikes.
Did you say "economic crisis?"
In fact, we just experienced one of those
times. Chinese stock valuations were absolutely crushed from
October 2008 through as recently as May 2009, as freaked-out
investors pulled their money out of any and all stocks they
perceived as "risky."
We at
Motley Fool Global Gains
, an investment research service I co-advise, took
advantage of that opportunity to pounce, recommending
China Green Agriculture ,
American Oriental Bioengineering , and
China Marine Food Group in rapid succession.
As you can see, the returns thus far from the group have been
worth the temporary discomfort of acting contrary to the
conventional wisdom (though we did recently sell AOB, after
becoming uncomfortable with some of the management team's
decisions):
Company
Recommended in ...
Return since
China Green Agriculture
October 2008
+393%
American Oriental Bioengineering
February 2009
-3%*
China Marine Food Group
May 2009 Continued... |