If you're like most U.S. investors I meet, you want to
invest in China, but you don't know how. You also fret about
the quality of corporate governance, a lack of internal
controls, and loose enforcement of accounting standards.
So you've decided that despite the incredible long-term
growth opportunity it offers, China is not worth the hassle.
Either that, or you settled for an exchange-traded fund that
makes China a part of its portfolio ... like the
Xinhua 25 Index (FXI).
Let's be frank: Neither of these solutions is good. But if
you read to the end of this article, I guarantee that you'll
be a little more comfortable with investing in China. More
importantly, you'll know three key niches where you should be
looking to buy stocks.
But first, why you don't want FXI
The problem with the FXI is that it owns 25
enormous, mature, and generally state-owned Chinese
companies, such as
Bank of China . Thus, its holdings are
regulated, have little room to grow, and aren't run by
executives known for their entrepreneurial spirit.
Buying these stocks in the hopes of profiting from China's
development would be like buying
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) or
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) in the hopes of
profiting from China's growth. Yes, these companies do
business in China, but they're not the plays you want to make
if you really want to make money in China.
Furthermore,
one-halfof FXI is exposed to Chinese banks. These
banks, as directed by the government in order to stimulate
the Chinese economy, loaned out more money in the first four
months of 2009 than
in all of 2008. It's difficult to see growth like
that and not conclude that underwriting standards were
compromised, which could lead to significant profit hits down
the line.
Thus, FXI is the wrong choice when it comes to investing
in China. But the good news for you is that I have three far
more promising alternatives.
China profit play No. 1: Rural China
The Chinese government, if nothing else, is
focused on self-preservation. That means keeping most of
their people content most of the time. And since most Chinese
still live in rural areas, recent government policies have
focused on keeping them content amid the economic downturn.
These have included raising the minimum purchasing prices for
rice, wheat, and soybeans, as well as introducing a new
national health-care plan to strengthen the social safety
net.
Thus far, these measures are working. The government
expects rural incomes in China to rise 6% this year. That
optimism has been corroborated by recent results from
fertilizer companies such as
China Green Agriculture and
Yongye International , which have topped all
expectations due in part to farmers' increasing purchasing
power.
At
Motley Fool Global Gains
, we expect these companies and others that sell directly
into rural China to continue to post good results. We're also
examining other ways to play the sector, such as
Skystar Biopharmaceutical Company (Nasdaq:
SKBI) and
Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS).
China profit play No. 2: Tier 2 infrastructure
Quick! Name a city in China!
Chances are you said Beijing or Shanghai, and not Xian,
Harbin, or Tianjin, despite the fact that all five have
populations in the multimillions. That's because while the
former are world-famous tier 1 cities in China, the latter
are relatively unknown tier 2 cities. But in order to even
out development in China, the government has made it a
priority to build infrastructure in these tier 2 cities, and
make them attractive places to do business. For tier 2, this
means more roads, power plants, subways, water treatment
facilities, etc.
But rather than pick a company that, say, builds only
subways, coal-fired power plants, roads, or nuclear power
plants, at
Global Gains, we like companies that work across
these niches.
RINO International (Nasdaq: RINO) is one
interesting example.
China profit play No. 3: SSE-led consolidation
While China's economy has been growing at a
near-10% annual rate for the past 25 years, growth is
slowing, and the low-hanging fruit when it comes to spurring
growth has long since been plucked from the tree. Thus, the
government is focused on ways to make the economy ever more
efficient. One of the strategies they've hit on is the forced
consolidation of small, inefficient state-owned enterprises
(SOEs) under private companies that they can count on to do
right by workers
andwring inefficiency out of operations. Continued... |