Keep good records in case you get sued or audited -- or if
you just hope to learn from past experiences. It's for that
last reason (and, frankly, the second ... curse you, IRS!)
that I keep meticulous records of my investments.
And so I found myself looking back over my recent
transaction history. I wanted to see what I had done since
October 2007 -- the beginning of what became a historic
market downturn -- and what that behavior revealed about my
state of mind during that tumultuous time ... and what we can
learn from it.
So let's take a trip back in time ...
October 2007 to May 2008
This was, for lack of a better term, the beginning of
the end, but it was a fairly benign beginning. While the
market was down 20% over this eight-month period, it was
business as usual in my portfolio, with two or three buys per
month into companies such as
FEMSA (NYSE: FMX) and
Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) that I not only thought
were compelling values, but also believed had the financial
strength to survive a coming downturn.
And while I thought at the time that I was a rational
master of my emotions, it's more likely I was just getting
duped by my amygdala. As Jason Zweig writes in
Your Money and Your Brain, "Because the amygdala
[the reflexive part of your brain] is so attuned to big
changes, a sudden drop in the market tends to be more
upsetting than a longer, slower decline."
Either way, I'd say I handled the slow decline from
October 2007 to May 2008 fairly well.
June 2008 to July 2008
Fast-forward two months, however, and the
market began to test my mettle. I followed up a sharp
near-10% decline in the market with a flurry of activity. But
rather than sell in fear, I went aggressively long -- making
13 purchases of volatile small and international stocks such
as
Dawson Geophysical (Nasdaq: DWSN) and
Melco (Nasdaq: MPEL) that I believed had been
unfairly oversold. Although it looked savvy at first as the
market briefly perked up in August, this was a mistake.
It was not a mistake of fear, however, but rather one
of greed. And while Zweig suggests that investors tend to get
caught up in upward momentum, sending more and more money
into the market as stock prices rise, I, as a conditioned
value investor, got greedy just as prices dropped sharply --
and ignored the data suggesting it could well get worse.
It did.
August 2008 to January 2009
The market declined 35%, creating what may end
up being one of history's great buying opportunities, and yet
I couldn't make more than a few buys here and there because I
had used up my excess powder prematurely in July.
Thus, rather than being in a position to take advantage of
this megadrop, I was fully invested amid historic downside
volatility. This led to some sleepless nights and some tough
decisions in early February.
February 2009
If investing success is buying low and selling
high, then failure is the opposite. And yet there I was in
early February unloading stocks such as
CarMax (NYSE: KMX) at discounts to where I'd
bought them.
Why? First, I was in too deep. My episode of greed in July
had caused me to invest more money in stocks that I felt
comfortable with. Thus, as the market continued to drop, I
was unable to stay unemotional.
Second, I fell victim to recency bias. As Zweig writes,
"The more recently [an event] occurred . . . the more
probable its recurrence will seem." Put those two facts
together and you can understand why my brain was pushing me
to take some money out of the stock market.
Fortunately, I wasn't totally shell-shocked. I only
moved out a little -- enough to restore an analytical
mind-set. Further, rather than keep those sums 100% in cash,
I put some in high-yield bonds, which were also distressed
and which have not wholly missed out on the recent rebound
(though they have not done as well as equities).
At the end of the day, these were defensive moves made
out of fear, moves that depressed my returns. And while it
frustrates me that I fell into one of investing's
psychological traps, I did end up realizing a benefit.
March 2009 to present
With investor equilibrium restored, it was
back to business as usual in my portfolio with two or three
purchases per month. And just as the market began to turn in
March, I purchased shares of a speculative -- but, I
believed,
highlyundervalued -- Chinese company called
Yongye International .
At the time, it traded over-the-counter and did not yet
have a CFO or any independent directors on its board. The
stock, however, was dirt cheap at $1.70 per share.
Now, if I hadn't rebalanced my portfolio in February, I
don't think I would have had the gumption to purchase this
stock. But I was back in my comfort zone, and I was able to
pull the trigger.
I'm glad I did. Yongye has since added a number of
qualified individuals to its management team and listed on
the Nasdaq. Further, our
Global Gainsteam visited Yongye in China in June to
get a better handle on the business -- after which we called
it out as a top pick to our
Global Gainsmembers.
Yongye now trades for more than
$10 per share. I don't write this to gloat or
cherry-pick, but rather to highlight the importance of having
-- at all times -- a balanced portfolio that allows you to
make decisions untainted by emotion.
The takeaways
That's my story, but there are three key
takeaways for you as well. Here they are:
1. Never go all in.
I acted too soon in July, and that reduced my
flexibility, as well as my ability to remain unemotional
going forward.
2. Add money to the market on a regular basis.
Despite all of the research I'd read and all
of the contacts I have, I was unable to anticipate the
market's near-term moves. I would have saved myself a lot of
stress if I had stuck to regular buys of great companies at
great prices.
3. Diversification matters.
Whether it's stocks or bonds, domestic or
foreign stocks, or small caps or large caps, the defense that
diversification provides truly does provide peace of mind in
times of crisis. Not only does it help you lose less money as
the market's falling, but it can also allow you to stay
unemotional and analytical -- enabling you to take advantage
of incredible opportunities such as Yongye whenever they
present themselves.
We employ all of these lessons at
Motley Fool Global Gains
,where our team of analysts seeks to find value in
the world's very volatile emerging markets. And while 2009
has been a particularly volatile year for us, stocks like
Yongye more than make up for it. To take a look at all of our
research and recommendations, simply
click hereto join
Global Gainsfree this month.
Already subscribe toGlobal Gains
? Log in at the top of
this page
.
This article was originally published Sept. 25, 2009. It
has been updated.
Tim Hanson
is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains
. He owns shares of Yongye International, Femsa,
Chipotle, Dawson, and Melco. Chipotle is aMotley Fool
Hidden Gems
and aRule Breakers
pick. Melco and Femsa areGlobal Gains
recommendations. CarMax is anInside Value
pick. The Motley Fool owns shares of Chipotle and has
this
disclosure policy
to make sure all of our analysts keep meticulous
records.
This article was originally published as
How I Timed the Marketon
Fool.com
Copyright 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
|